220
FXUS63 KARX 310519
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1219 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR TODAY AND MONDAY GIVE
WAY TO HIGHS IN THE 80S AREAWIDE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORMS POSSIBLE (20-40% CHANCE) THROUGH
MONDAY, MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
TODAY - MONDAY: LIGHT SHOWER/STORM RISK, SEASONABLE TEMPS
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC THETA-E RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN
MEANDERING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LAST HALF DAY OR SO ACROSS
IOWA, WITH THE LEADING THETA-E ADVECTION CORRIDOR SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THESE SHOWERS ARE FIGHTING DRY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW,
LIMITING THE WETTING NATURE OF THE SHOWERS. THIS PATTERN LINGERS
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LIGHT SHOWERS--MAINLY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER--INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS LIFT NORTHWARD AROUND A NEARLY ZONALLY-
ORIENTED TROUGH STRETCHING THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM THE WEST COAST
TO WISCONSIN. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DO LITTLE TO
ALLEVIATE THE DRY CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE INCREASING CLOUDS ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE TEMPERED
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-70S TO LOW 80S TODAY AND MONDAY.
QUESTIONS LINGER ABOUT THE DEGREE OF STORM COVERAGE AND LOCATION
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN A DRIER SHIFT
IN THE GRAND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC
EC/GFS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES POTENTIALLY SQUASHING
DEVELOPMENT. THE MUCAPE AXIS ALSO LOOKS TO LINGER MORE OFF TO
THE WEST. BUT NOT BY FAR. STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES UNDER
THESE STORM BASES AND MORE LINEAR HODOGRAPHS COULD PROMOTE A
WIND/HAIL THREAT--IF STORMS WERE TO FORM. THE EXTENDED RUNS OF
THE ARW/HRRR ARE DEVOID OF STORMS AT THIS RANGE, THOUGH THE RRFS
IS MORE BULLISH ON STORMS EAST OF I-35. THESE STORMS SEEM MORE
CONTINGENT ON THE PRESENCE OF A STRONGER (CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED?) BOUNDARY LAYING OUT OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON,
A FEATURE THAT COULD EASILY EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REST OF THE WEEK: DRY START, SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A SYNOPTIC RIDGE AMPLIFYING
YET AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
RETURNING TOWARDS MID-WEEK. AS A RESULT, EXPECTING HIGHS TO
WARM SLIGHTLY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE TO EVEN
SOME UPPER 80S COME WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS FIRMLY OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOTED ACROSS ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT THIS
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN GOING INTO LATE WEEK RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN. CONSEQUENTLY, VARIOUS SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS AS
SHOWN IN GUIDANCE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION. REGARDLESS, PROBABILITIES INCREASE FAIRLY DRAMATICALLY
(50-90%) FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE GRAND ENSEMBLE
(GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) DURING THIS PERIOD SO CONFIDENCE IS
CERTAINLY INCREASED FOR AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION BY LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY (20-40%), BUT IMPACTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. VFR CEILINGS REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION, AROUND 5KFT IN SHOWERS AND 10KFT OR HIGHER
ELSEWHERE. SOUTHEAST PREVAILS AS THE PREDOMINANT WIND DIRECTION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, GENERALLY 5-15KT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY,
STRONGEST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NAYLOR/SKOW
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
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