820
FXUS63 KARX 140719
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
219 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- INITIAL STORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG STORMS LOCALLY. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASE PROVISORY STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM THREAT. HIGHER PROBABILITIES SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA AT CURRENT, LONGER FORECAST HOUR HINGE ON
STORM TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
ONGOING SHOWERS & LOW SHOWER CHANCES (<15%) THROUGH SUNDAY:
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER IN SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES
OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS LOW CHANCE FOR
SPRINKLES PRIMARILY AFFECTS LOCALLY NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY
MORNING.
REMAINING COOL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK:
THE SYNOPTIC LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CAUSES A COOLER-THAN-NORMAL
FORECAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGER TERM. WHILE NBM TEMPERATURE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND INTERQUARTILE RANGE SUGGESTS DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK, A FEW DEGREE
SPREAD BETWEEN BIAS CORRECTED AND RAW MODELS IN ACCOMPANYING VIOLIN
PLOTS RAISE SOME HESITANCY AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ISN'T EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO MUCH CHANGE OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION & STORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT/TUES & WEDNESDAY:
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH MID RANGE FORECAST,
INITIALLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR SOME OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD FOR WEDNESDAY. INTER/INTRA
ENSEMBLE DISAGREEMENT REGARDING MONDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
STEMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND SUBSEQUENT
LOW PRESSURE CENTER. OUTSIDE OF GEFS, MOST LREF MEMBERS AND THEIR AI
ACCOUTREMENT'S SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION OF A BOWLING BALL OF MID
LEVEL VORTICITY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY RETROGRADING
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THEREFORE, HIGHER, MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MAY BE REQUIRED IN COMING FORECASTS AS
AGREEMENT PUSHES SOUTHWEST. REGARDLESS, INTRAENSEMBLE AGREEMENT
REMAINS LOW FOR ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE ANY STORM
POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY STORM CHANCES; SUBSEQUENT STRONG STORM POTENTIAL:
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ADVECT THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS AN ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
APPENDAGE CIRCUMNAVIGATES THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY, ENHANCED BY A
REGION OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE STORMS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN STORM TRACK
OVER THE FORECAST AREA, ABATING HIGHER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH.
ALTHOUGH, AN UPTICK IN MOST RECENT (13.00Z) MACHINE LEARNING
CONVECTIVE HAZARD MODELS GRAZES A LOBE OF 15%-30% PROBABILITIES AS
THE LOW WRAPS THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE,
WILL BE THE HIGHER CONCERN FORECAST TO REMAIN COGNIZANT OF.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20-30 KTS TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF INTO THE
EVENING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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