985
FXUS63 KARX 152331
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
631 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MAYBE SOME
SMALL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
- UNUSUALLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
TONIGHT
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE 0-1 KM MIXED-LAYED CAPES AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL BE UP
TO 150 J/KG. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH WEAK 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID-50S.
TUESDAY
THE DEFORMATION AREA OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA, AND WEST-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE 0-1 KM MIXED-LAYED
CAPES CLIMB UP TO 250 J/KG. THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOKED TO BE ON
THE LOW SIDE, SO RAISED THEM UP INTO THE 80S AND 90S. LIKE TONIGHT,
THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE, SO NO
CONCERNS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-60S TO LOWER 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL BE LOCATED IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A 120-KNOT 250 MB JET.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE 1 TO 1.5" SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE REGION.
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS HAVE THE 0-1 KM MIXED-LAYED CAPES UP TO 1,000
J/KG. MEANWHILE, THE FASTER SOLUTIONS HAVE VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY.
WITH STRONG 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR, THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL
GREATLY IMPACT WHETHER WE SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO MID-70S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE
CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE EVER CO-LOCATED. AS A RESULT, IT IS UNCERTAIN
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM THE MID-60S AND MID-70S FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RANGE FROM THE MID-40S TO MID-50S FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
APPROACHING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED TS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS INSTABILITY WANES AFTER
SUNSET, TS PROBABILITY WILL DECREASE BUT THESE SHOULD STILL
REACH RST WITH ENOUGH CONCERN FOR A PROB30 TO BE INCLUDED THERE.
AFTER THE FIRST ROUND OF POTENTIAL PRECIP, MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, LEADING
TO MVFR CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IN TS DURING THIS
SECOND ROUND IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT EITHER SITE. AS SHOWERS
DEPART, GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO 25-30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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