067
FXUS63 KARX 160532
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1232 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MAYBE SOME
SMALL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
- UNUSUALLY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
TONIGHT
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE 0-1 KM MIXED-LAYED CAPES AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL BE UP
TO 150 J/KG. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH WEAK 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID-50S.
TUESDAY
THE DEFORMATION AREA OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA, AND WEST-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE 0-1 KM MIXED-LAYED
CAPES CLIMB UP TO 250 J/KG. THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOKED TO BE ON
THE LOW SIDE, SO RAISED THEM UP INTO THE 80S AND 90S. LIKE TONIGHT,
THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE, SO NO
CONCERNS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-60S TO LOWER 70S.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL BE LOCATED IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A 120-KNOT 250 MB JET.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE 1 TO 1.5" SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE REGION.
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS HAVE THE 0-1 KM MIXED-LAYED CAPES UP TO 1,000
J/KG. MEANWHILE, THE FASTER SOLUTIONS HAVE VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY.
WITH STRONG 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR, THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL
GREATLY IMPACT WHETHER WE SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO MID-70S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE
CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE EVER CO-LOCATED. AS A RESULT, IT IS UNCERTAIN
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FROM THE MID-60S AND MID-70S FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RANGE FROM THE MID-40S TO MID-50S FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT AT THE TERMINALS. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING THAT HAVE PRODUCED SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY DOES LOOK
TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND OVERALL, HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT THE TERMINALS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE MORNING, MOVING OUT
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITH EITHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AS THEY
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE BUT SOME MVFR STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20-30 KTS EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINALS. THESE GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND 00Z WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF
THE 06Z PACKAGE.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...BARENDSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page