095
FXUS63 KARX 160623
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
123 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION AND NON-SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG
WINDS WILL BE MAIN IMPACT PRIMARILY IN WIND PRONE AREAS WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD (60%-80%) HEAVY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT LOW
CONFIDENCE (15%-30%) MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AND STORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT CURRENT DRY FORECAST THURSDAY TO
CHANGE SOME THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SHOWER & NON-SEVERE STORM CHANCES SPREADING EAST:
A SURFACE LOW EVIDENT IN OBSERVATIONS OF CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
FOLLOWING THE TIGHT, CLOSED AREA OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ON
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS, DRIVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER MOISTURE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA (INL 16.00Z RAOB) ABATES HIGHER RAINFALL CONCERNS
LOCALLY WITH CONFIDENCE FOR 0.1" OF ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 IN WISCONSIN LOCALLY.
MAIN LOCAL IMPACT WILL BE STRONGER WINDS IN SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND LOWER ISOHEIGHTS TRANSLATING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. CURRENT CONFIDENCE FOR 20 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-
35+ MPH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WIND PRONE
AREAS PRIMARILY.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY:
MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC CONFLUENCE FROM AN APPENDAGE OF THE LARGE
SYNOPTIC EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER HUDSON BAY ENHANCES AN EXTENDED
RIBBON OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY, CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR INCREASED
INSTABILITY LIES WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, SEPARATE SURFACE
LOWS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTEMPT TO TRANSLATE
UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LONGER TERM DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ALLUDE TO THE NORTHERN LOW
LEVERAGING THE 60 DEGREE SURFACE ISODROSOTHERM THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA BEFORE WEAKENING AND SUBSEQUENTLY
RELINQUISHING WARM, MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE,
EXACT TRACK AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF CYCLOGENESIS AFFECT LOCAL SEVERE
STORM CHANCES INHERENTLY INTERTWINED WITH SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION
BETWEEN LOW CENTER SEPARATION, PHASING, AND STRENGTH.
A STRONGER NORTHERN LOW OR MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW MORE
UNSTABLE AIR TO ADVECT FARTHER NORTH, INCREASING LOCAL SEVERE
THREAT. CURRENT CONFIDENCE THE NORTHERN LOW WEAKENING WHILE SHIFTING
EAST THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA KEEPS LOCAL STORM CONCERNS PRIMARILY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, GRAZING 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE
ACROSS THESE COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
(NAM/GFS/EPS/GEFS). HOWEVER, SHOULD A STRONGER OR MORE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION TO THE NORTHERN LOW COME TO FRUITION, LOCAL STORM THREAT
COULD PERSIST FARTHER EAST, EVIDENT IN INDIVIDUAL EPS MEMBERS
ADVECTING 1000+ J/KG OF MUCAPE INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SHEAR
VALUES WOULD SUPPORT ALL HAZARD TYPES WITH LINEAR STORM MODE OR
SPLITTING CELLS SHOULD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOW DOWN.
MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE HAZARD FORECAST MODELS PERSIST A HUMP OF
SPATIALLY RELATIVE HIGHER (15%-30%) PROBABILITIES LOCALLY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A RESULT.
LOW CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION/STORM CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND:
WHILE CURRENT NBM KEEPS A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY, LREF
CONFIDENCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS MODERATE-HIGH (50-70%)
OUTSIDE OF THE GEPS (<20%). WHILE OVERALL IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL, STEEPER MID AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM STRONGER COLD
AIR ADVECTION CAUSES SOME STORM POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE LONGER FORECAST
HOUR AND LIMITATIONS ON FORECASTER EDITING AWAY FROM THE NBM, KEPT A
DRY FORECAST BUT EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE SHOULD CURRENT LREF
CONFIDENCE CONTINUE.
STORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUES INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PERMITS MID LEVEL FORCING TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. LONGER FORECAST HOUR
AND LIMITED SYNOPTIC FORCING STRENGTH OR SIGNAL LIMITS OVERALL
CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE, EXPECT FORECAST TO VARY MARKEDLY THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT AT THE TERMINALS. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING THAT HAVE PRODUCED SOME GUSTY WINDS
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY DOES LOOK
TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND OVERALL, HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT THE TERMINALS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE MORNING, MOVING OUT
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITH EITHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AS THEY
SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE BUT SOME MVFR STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20-30 KTS EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINALS. THESE GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND 00Z WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF
THE 06Z PACKAGE.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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