099
FXUS63 KARX 180532
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1232 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS, A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
WEEK
GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
PREDOMINANT OVER THE NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL BRING VERY LIMITED,
IF ANY, WINDOWS FOR SOUTHERLY MOIST ADVECTION AND AN APPRECIABLE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD STILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY IF THEY EJECT DOWNSTREAM DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE SHORT TERM, GOOD SIGNAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO HAVE INCREASED POPS ABOVE NBM 20S CLOSER TO
40-50. IN ANY CASE, RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF BUT THERE MAY (25%) BE A
RISK FOR SOME LIGHTNING FOR THOSE OUTSIDE. MOVING AHEAD, ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY (40-60%), TUESDAY (30-40%), AND WEDNESDAY
(40%).
DEVIATION FROM THE DESCRIBED PATTERN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN AN UPPER JET ADVANCES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS,
SPURRING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE CYCLONE IN WESTERN KS THAT THEN
MOVES EASTWARD. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES GENERALLY KEEP
RESULTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WELL TO OUR
SOUTH BUT ML POST-PROCESSED OUTPUT SUGGESTS A FEW MEMBERS, MAINLY
BELONGING TO THE 17.00Z ECENS, HAVE A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WHICH
MAY BRING HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THUS, THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE UNEVENTFUL BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET IS STILL WEST OF THE CONUS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
AN MVFR-IFR CLOUD DECK PRIMARILY AFFECTING NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
LOCAL FORECAST AREA IN WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS
RECENTLY LIFTED FROM BOTH TAF SITES (KLSE/KRST). THE RESULTANT
MVFR SCT-FEW DECK MAY CAUSE TEMPO IMPACTS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
LATER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AFFECTING WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING PRIMARILY NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
KLSE TAF SITE.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...JAR
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