049
FXUS63 KARX 181807
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
107 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS, A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
WEEK
0
GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
PREDOMINANT OVER THE NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL BRING VERY LIMITED,
IF ANY, WINDOWS FOR SOUTHERLY MOIST ADVECTION AND AN APPRECIABLE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD STILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY IF THEY EJECT DOWNSTREAM DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE SHORT TERM, GOOD SIGNAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO HAVE INCREASED POPS ABOVE NBM 20S CLOSER TO
40-50. IN ANY CASE, RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF BUT THERE MAY (25%) BE A
RISK FOR SOME LIGHTNING FOR THOSE OUTSIDE. MOVING AHEAD, ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY (40-60%), TUESDAY (30-40%), AND WEDNESDAY
(40%).
DEVIATION FROM THE DESCRIBED PATTERN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND WHEN AN UPPER JET ADVANCES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS,
SPURRING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE CYCLONE IN WESTERN KS THAT THEN
MOVES EASTWARD. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES GENERALLY KEEP
RESULTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WELL TO OUR
SOUTH BUT ML POST-PROCESSED OUTPUT SUGGESTS A FEW MEMBERS, MAINLY
BELONGING TO THE 17.00Z ECENS, HAVE A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WHICH
MAY BRING HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THUS, THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE UNEVENTFUL BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET IS STILL WEST OF THE CONUS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MOVES ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90, THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCEMENT IN
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND IN WEST-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND NORTH-CENTAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THIS JET MOVES IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THIS ENHANCEMENT WILL THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...BOYNE
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