370
FXUS63 KARX 191034
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
534 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL.
- LOW POTENTIAL (30%) FOR MODERATE RAIN TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN SUNDAY.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ON MONDAY (10%), TUESDAY
(60%), AND WEDNESDAY (30%). SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LARGELY REMAIN STEADY
STATE GIVEN CONTINUED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST, TEMPERATURE ALOFT
SHOULD COOL ENOUGH DUE TO THE APPROACHING WAVE FOR CONVECTION TO
BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ROBUST UPPER SUPPORT, HAVE MOVED
POPS UPWARD FROM 19.01Z NBM 30-60 VALUES TOWARD 60-70S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. AS FOR HAZARDS, WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED GIVEN TOTAL LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN (ONLY A 10-40% CHANCE TO
EXCEED 750 J/KG SBCAPE PER 19.00Z HREF), STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT
SHOULD YIELD SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 60 KNOTS, ALBEIT WITH A
LINEAR HODOGRAPH SHAPE. THEREFORE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES BUT AN OVERALL MESSY STORM MODE AS
STORM DYNAMICS WOULD SUPPORT READILY SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY
RISK LOOKS TO BE FROM WIND AS DOWNDRAFTS BRING DOWN STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT AND HAIL GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RESIDENCE TIME
WITH ROTATING STORMS. THAT SAID, OVERALL RISK IS LIMITED (5%) DUE TO
AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES WITH INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER LIMITING TOP END WIND RISK.
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAIN SUNDAY
LEE CYCLONE LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY AND QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS IA/MO/IL SIT UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET. WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE IN THE
SE CONUS, ROBUST MOIST ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
FEATURE. DEPENDING ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW, WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE MAY ADVECT OVER NE IA AND SW WI AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN
WOULD RESULT. THAT SAID, 18.12Z LREF SUGGESTS ONLY A 30% CHANCE TO
REACH 1" OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS, LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE ECENS.
EXPECT A SHARP NORTHERN CUTOFF IN RAIN - THE SAME AREA WITH A 30%
CHANCE TO REACH 1" ALSO HAS A 20% CHANCE TO END UP WITH ZERO (0)
RAINFALL. WITH 19.00Z NAM BRINGING PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN CWA,
RESISTED URGE TO CUT POPS FOR NOW. AS FOR SEVERE STORMS, TRADITIONAL
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES AND POST-PROCESSING SYSTEMS BOTH
STRONGLY SUGGEST THESE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOTS AND SHOWERS, STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY RETURNS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN ONCE AGAIN STAYING AWAY, EXPECT
BOUTS OF ORDINARY CONVECTION WITH ANY WELL-TIMED WAVES MOVING
DOWNSTREAM DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, TUESDAY APPEARS TO
HAVE THE RELATIVELY HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(60%).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VFR EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE 19.12Z TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, EXITING EAST BY TONIGHT.
CURRENT CONFIDENCE KEEPS PROB30 AT BOTH LOCAL TAF SITES
(KLSE/KRST).
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...JAR
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