934
FXUS63 KARX 191752
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1252 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING LIKELIHOOD (60-80%) FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING. A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-90,
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WINDS (<15% CHANCE).
- ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY IMPACT TAYLOR AND NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON (20% CHANCE).
- RAIN POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY INCREASES HEADING SOUTH FROM I-90
(30-60%), HIGHEST JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THE STORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ADVANCING
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S EAST, BUT THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WE CAN BUILD THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCOMING DECAYING
MIDDAY SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS. HOWEVER, THERE'S BEEN A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL/WESTERN MINNESOTA UNDER FEW CLOUDS THAT HAS SEEN
STRONG INSOLATION THROUGH THE MORNING, AND RAP MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THIS GROWING POOL OF INSTABILITY WILL CREEP EASTWARD THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WITH RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RAP
SUGGESTS POTENTIALLY 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE NORTH OF I-90 (LIKELY A
BIT HIGH DUE TO OVER-MIXING), THOUGH HREF MEAN SBCAPE IS MORE
ON THE ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG. REGARDLESS, THERE WILL BE AMPLE
INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE ROBUST WITH 0-6KM VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 30-60+
KNOTS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT MAYBE TAYLOR AND NORTHERN CLARK
COUNTIES. HODOGRAPHS ARE SOMEWHAT MESSY BUT GENERALLY STRAIGHT,
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLITTING STORMS. CERTAINLY
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW DEEPER CAPE PROFILES FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF
2-3 HOURS DEPENDING ON LOCATION SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE
LOW-TOPPED. HAIL IS LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD AND SHOULD
MOSTLY BE SMALL, BUT ANY STRONGER/DEEPER/ROTATING UPDRAFTS COULD
POTENTIALLY GROW ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE OR
SLIGHTLY LARGER. DCAPE IS MARGINAL AT BEST, SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OF A SEVERE WIND THREAT BUT CAN'T RULE IT OUT ENTIRELY.
ACTIVITY WILL EXIT OUR AREA BY LATE EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY, STEEP 0-3KM LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE
MARGINAL AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. CAMS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO AGREEMENT
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE ADDED SMALL POPS (20%)
TO TAYLOR INTO NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, FIZZLING
OUT TOWARD SUNSET.
SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST JUST TO OUR SOUTH
CONTINUING TO MONITOR SUNDAY'S SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING RAIN
POTENTIAL. A DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE FROM KANSAS
INTO MO/IA/IL WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS. STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM AS IT
PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS WIDE NORTH-TO-SOUTH SPREAD AMONG
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS TO THIS SURFACE LOW'S TRACK, BUT ALL
GEFS/GEPS/ENS MEMBERS KEEP IT SOUTH OF WISCONSIN ALONG WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN. THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL BE BRUSHED BY SOME OF THE WRAP
AROUND RAINFALL, IF THEY WILL MISS OUT ENTIRELY, OR IF THE RAIN
ADVANCES EVEN A BIT FURTHER NORTH. RECENT ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS ALL
EXHIBIT SLIGHT NORTH-TO-SOUTH FLUCTUATIONS THAT KEEP THE FORECAST A
BIT MUDDLED. SO WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH NBM POPS FOR NOW WHICH
STILL PAINT A BROAD BRUSHED 30-40% ALL THE WAY NORTH TO I-90 WITH
60% IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
SEASONAL INTO NEXT WEEK
NOT SEEING ANY BIG PATTERN SHIFTS OR TEMPERATURE SWINGS FURTHER
OUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE NEXT
SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE (70%) FOR RAIN AS AN UPPER WAVE DROPS THROUGH
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING WILL BE THE PRIMARY TAF CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS BEFORE A SECONDARY ROUND
OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90
INTO THE EVENING. IFR VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL BE LIKELY UNDERNEATH ANY
STORMS WITH STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. STORMS EXIT BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE IN UNSHELTERED LOCATIONS, HOWEVER WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS FOR MOST BY OVERNIGHT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KURZ
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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