083
FXUS63 KARX 201748
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1248 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL RAIN LIKELY (50-80% CHANCE) IN NORTHEAST IA AND
SOUTHWEST WI ON SUNDAY.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY (60-90% CHANCE) ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
- CONTINUED PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
REST OF TODAY - SUNDAY: PRECIPITATION CHANCES & STAYING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON ARE TAP THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO PERPETUATE A COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
CONSEQUENTLY, GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF AREA THIS WEEKEND. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS (10-20% CHANCE) WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL WI AS SHOWN IN A FEW OF THE
CAMS. HOWEVER, WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL FROM THESE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY, A 500MB SHORTWAVE IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECTING SOME CHANCES FOR
STRATIFORM RAIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO AREAS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-90.
OVERALL, PROBABILITIES IN BOTH THE LREF AND HREF ARE FAIRLY HIGH (50-
90%) SOUTH OF THE MN STATE LINE FOR AT LEAST MEASURABLE RAINFALL, A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES. CONSEQUENTLY,
HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCORDINGLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI. HOWEVER, GIVEN FAIRLY LIMITED
INSTABILITY IN THE RECENT RAP, REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE STRATIFORM REGION IN THE LOCAL AREA NORTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE. AS A RESULT, PROBABILITIES (20-50%) FOR 0.5" OR
GREATER OF RAINFALL IN THE RECENT HREF ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH AND
ARE CONFINED TO A PLATTEVILLE, WI TO OELWEIN, IA LINE ON
SOUTHWARD.
MONDAY - FRIDAY: STAYING PLEASANT, SHOWER/STORM CHANCES MID-WEEK
BY THE TIME THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK ROLLS AROUND, CONTINUED QUASI-
ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
ROUGHLY STEADY-STATE WITH HIGHS KEEPING TO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WOULD BE ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DESCENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS THIS OCCURS, AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION,
INSTIGATING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD IS QUITE HIGH (OVER 90% CHANCE) IN THE
GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN), HOWEVER JOINT PROBABILITIES FOR
MUCAPE OVER 500 J/KG AND 30 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ARE FAIRLY LOW
(0-30%). ADDITIONALLY, MUCH OF ML/AI SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
GUIDANCE DOES NOT PAINT MUCH FOR PROBABILITIES (GENERALLY 5% OR
LESS) OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID, FAIRLY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DYNAMICS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
YOU COULD GET SOME MORE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
MATERIALIZE SOME LOCALIZED STORM ORGANIZATION IF IT OVERLAPS
WITH ANY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AXIS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF WHEN THIS TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION DIFFERS SLIGHTLY ACROSS DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE,
CONFIDENCE IN HOW ANY SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.
IN ANY CASE, SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL MANIFEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AT LSE/RST.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OVERHEAD TONIGHT, SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD SUNDAY
MORNING BUT ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO STAY CONFINED MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NAYLOR
AVIATION...KURZ
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