953
FXUS63 KARX 050713
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
213 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
OVERNIGHT
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THIS LINE WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THE SURFACE-BASED AND MIXED-
LAYER CAPES GRADUALLY DECLINE AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGES AHEAD
OF IT. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THIS OCCUR, AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
WITH ALL OF THE ADDITIONAL CONDENSATION NUCLEI (FROM FIREWORKS)
TRAPPED UNDER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME VALLEY FOG. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING 2-3 MILE FOG AT LA CROSSE.
WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SEEING FOG ALREADY, WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. AT LA CROSSE, IT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY
05.14Z.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING 0-1 KM MIXED-LAYER CAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS.
THIS MIGHT RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES (20-40%) WILL BE
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID-80S.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE 500 MB FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN US. THERE
LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. THIS
WILL BRING PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO CLIMB INTO THE 2.25 TO
2.5 INCH RANGE TO POOL ALONG THIS FRONT. IN ADDITION, WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 4 KM. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN AND A
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AS FAR AS SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE
ON THE AMOUNT OF 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR. AS A RESULT, THERE IS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY OM WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MID-80S ON TUESDAY AND IN THE 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE
IN THE MID- AND UPPER 60S.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGH WILL RETROGRADE TO
THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL DRAMATICALLY CLIMB TO AROUND
600 DECAMETERS. OVER TIME, THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AND NORTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIKE
THIS PAST WEEK, THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS TIME IS WHETHER
THEY WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA OR STAY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT OUR TEMPERATURES TOO. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID-80S. THEY COULD CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER AND MID-90S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A DISSIPATING LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH LA CROSSE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. STILL PLENTY OF QUESTIONS ON WHETHER IT
WILL EVEN REACH LA CROSSE OR NOT, SO JUST WENT VCTS.WITH ALL
OF THE ADDITIONAL CONDENSATION NUCLEI FROM THE FIREWORKS IN THE
VALLEY, DECIDED TO GO WITH DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT KLSE.
IT SHOULD DISSIPATE THERE BY 05.14Z. WAS NOT AS SURE AT KRST,
SO WILL JUST MONITOR IT THERE.
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
IMPACT KRST. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...BOYNE
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