802
FXUS63 KARX 060516
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1216 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NEAR
90 FOR TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW,
DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL TIMING OF LOCAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
TODAY:
AGGRAVATED CUMULUS CAN BE SEEN BURBLING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING PERMITS PARCELS TO
REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. A THICK LOW LEVEL CALM WIND
PROFILE LIMITS DURATION OR EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION OR STORMS,
SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY POPPING UP FOR 1 OR 2 SCANS BEFORE COOLER
RAIN-COOLED AIR OVERCOMES ANY ATTEMPTS AT ADDITIONAL RISING
UPDRAFTS.
THROUGH TUESDAY:
A RELATIVELY STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN KEEPS A MOSTLY PERSISTENT
FORECAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
LOW AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PRIMARILY ALONG OUR
WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE RESPONSIBLE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN ON
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS PROGRESSING
FROM IOWA INTO MISSOURI EXPECTED TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES CAUSING EAST WIND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. RETURN FLOW
AMPLIFIES FROM THE CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS, EVENTUALLY
ADVECTING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MIDWEEK PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL:
ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCREASES HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS
THE PERSISTENT UPSTREAM RETURN FLOW ALLOWS PWATS TO PUSH 1.5" TO 2"
ACCORDING TO HIGHEST (70-100%) LREF PROBABILITIES. DIURNAL TIMING OF
THE PASSING WAVE WILL DETERMINE LOCAL STORM AND SEVERE CHANCES AS
LREF INTERMEMBER AND INTRAMEMBER VARIATION EXHIBITS LOWEST SB/MU
CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG WITH OVERNIGHT PASSAGE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY
OF 2500 J/KG+. WHILE OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS AND SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS LOW, WEDNESDAY SHOWS LOCALLY HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHICH CAUSES MORE
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO SKY COVER LIMITING DIURNAL HEATING INFLUENCE AS
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCREASES INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
REGARDLESS, LIMITED AVAILABLE SHEAR LIMITS STORM STRENGTH, HINGING
ON FRONTAL PASSAGE PRIMARILY IN THE LOWEST LEVELS DUE TO THE
INHERENT WIND SHIFT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
TRICKY FOG FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AT KLSE AS THE RAP HAS BEGUN TO
SUGGEST AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD LATER TONIGHT JUST OFF
THE SURFACE. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP WITH IFR REDUCTIONS AT KLSE WITH THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE, HOWEVER IF THIS SCENARIO PRESENTED IN THE RAP DOES
BECOME REALITY THEN THIS WOULD MAKE IFR/LIFR FOG AT KLSE
UNLIKELY. AS FAR AS AREAL FOG TO IMPACT KRST, SEEING MIXED
SIGNALS IN GUIDANCE AS THE HREF HAS LOW PROBABILITIES (20-30%)
FOR VSBY REDUCTIONS, HOWEVER THE SIGNAL IN THE HREF IS IF FOG
DOES OCCUR IT WOULD LIKELY BE LIFR TO 1/4SM. HAVE OPTED TO HOLD
WITH SOME CATEGORY VSBY REDUCTIONS AND WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED
OVERNIGHT AT KRST. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH FEW TO SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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