329
FXUS63 KARX 070519
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1219 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH LOW POTENTIAL EXISTS (10-20%) FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY (60-80%) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS, WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WHERE 1
INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE (20-30%).
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
THIS AFTERNOON - TUESDAY: OVERALL DRY, LOW PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL
PRIMARILY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
(10-20%) OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AS A CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA DECAYS WITH
SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT ASSOCIATED WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY.
OUTSIDE OF THIS LOW POTENTIAL THOUGH, A MUCH NEEDED REPRIEVE
FROM LAST WEEK'S RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE IN STORE.
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER BENIGN DAY AS 700-500HPA
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DEPICTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ATOP THIS RIDGE
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-90 WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. PROBABILITIES ARE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT WITH THE
06.06Z REFS SUGGESTING ONLY 10-20% PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.
TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY: SHOWERS AND STORMS, HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL
A STRONGER WAVE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYS
OUT WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN 850HPA LOW-LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE
ADVECTED INTO THE BOUNDARY. PWATS OF 1.5-1.6 INCHES AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS OF AROUND 12KFT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE BOUNDARY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF
THE FORCING MECHANISMS. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH BOUNDARY
PARALLEL CLOUD LAYER/CORFIDI VECTOR FLOW, CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING STORMS AS WELL.
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY
NIGHT IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY AND THUS THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. A BIT OF A BIMODAL SITUATION EXISTS AMONGST
THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SUITES BECAUSE OF THIS: A MORE NORTHWARD
SOLUTION DEPICTED IN THE EPS/GEPS/AIFS AND A MORE SOUTHERN
SOLUTION IN THE GEFS/AIGEFS.
CURRENTLY, THE GREATEST SIGNAL FOR THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
AXIS IS NORTH OF OUR AREA, MORE IN LINE WITH THE EPS/GEPS/AIFS
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE
SUITES SITS FURTHER SOUTH, MORE IN LINE WITH THE GEFS/AIGEFS
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WOULD BE FAVORED FURTHER SOUTH. OF NOTE AS
WELL IS THAT THE AIFS IS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF ITS
NUMERICALLY DERIVED COUNTERPART WHICH MAY SUGGEST AN EVENTUAL
SOUTHWARD TREND.
DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION BECOMES FAVORED IN THE COMING DAYS
WILL DETERMINE THE IMPACTS ACROSS OUR AREA. IF THE BOUNDARY
REMAINS TO THE NORTH, THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING RISK ACROSS
OUR AREA WOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH WHEREAS A SOUTHERN SOLUTION
WOULD RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING RISK FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, FORCING THE BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT MOVES THROUGH GIVEN THE JUICED UP
ATMOSPHERE, BUT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE SHOULD REDUCE HOW
MUCH RAINFALL A SINGLE LOCATION RECEIVES. THOSE ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-90 CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH OR
GREATER, SITTING AT 20-30% IN THE 06.13Z NBM. ON TOP OF THE
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL, THERE IS ALSO SOME SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN MUCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG, THE HIGH PWATS, AND DCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
800-1000 J/KG.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY: NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ADVECTED INTO
THE REGION, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW
TO MID 60S FOR LOWS, RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
25TH-75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD IN THE 06.13Z NBM IS FAIRLY LOW,
GENERALLY 3-5 DEGREES, IN AGREEMENT WITH OTHER ENSEMBLE SUITES.
UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND AS
INTERQUARTILE SPREADS INCREASE TO 6-10 DEGREES WITH EVEN GREATER
VARIATION BETWEEN THE OUTLIER MEMBERS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. OPTED TO INCLUDE A PROB30 AT
KRST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE
TAF SITE LATER TONIGHT WITH THE ONGOING MCS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
MN. OTHERWISE, VFR CUMULUS WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL SKY COVER AROUND SUNSET. SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS
TONIGHT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION
IN THE KLSE TAF AT THIS TIME.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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