717
FXUS63 KARX 090533
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1233 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORM ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- COOLER WEATHER TO END THE WEEK WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. WARMER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUES NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS GET IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
TODAY: FOG EARLY THIS MORNING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON
WITH THE RAIN THAT FELL AND THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH, FOGGY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING. IF
SKIES CLEAR OUT A LITTLE MORE THEN THEIR COULD ALSO BE LOCALIZED
AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG
WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK SHEAR
IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THESE STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
GOING. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A
SHOWER OR STORM. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS THAT CAN GET
GOING AND STAY ORGANIZED A FOR A PERIOD OF TIME WOULD BE VERY
LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.5" DUE TO SLOWER STORM MOTION.
FRIDAY-NEXT WEEK: COOLER END TO THE WEEK WITH WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY, A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL LIMIT ANY RAINFALL CHANCES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
GET INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THE SURFACE THE
REGION WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WHICH
COULD TEMPER OUR TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE THEY
WILL BE IN GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE RIDGE STAYING OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AFTERWARDS IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS. ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AT SOME POINT
AND BRINGING THE STORM PATH MORE IN LINE WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST,
HOWEVER THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS WHEN THIS OCCURS. THE LONGER THE
RIDGE STAYS AMPLIFIED AND OVER OUR AREA, THE LESS LIKELY WE SEE
CONVECTION IN OUR REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
IFR LOW-STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING QUICKLY MIXES OUT FOG AND LOW-STRATUS
GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. ONE THING WE WILL NEED TO
WATCH IS IF ANY 1/4SM CAN DEVELOP AS BOTH THE GLAMP AND HREF HINT
SOME DEGREE OF A FOOTPRINT FOR IT IN SOUTHEAST MN AND PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL WI WHERE CLEARING IN THE ANVIL SHIELD FROM EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TAKE PLACE. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE KRST TAF
FOR NOW BUT WILL AMEND TO INCLUDE 1/4SM FOG IF TRENDS FAVOR
THIS. OTHERWISE, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF THESE REACHING KLSE WAS TOO LOW (10%
CHANCE) TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
AFTER A SWATH OF 3 TO 5" FELL IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA AND A MORE LOCALIZED AREA OF 5 TO 7"
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOWER COUNTY, THE CEDAR RIVER IS PRONGED TO BE ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RUNOFF FILLS INTO THE
RIVER. LITTLE TO NO MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE LONE EXCEPTION IS THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOCALIZED POSSIBILITY OF 0.5 TO 1.5"
OCCURRING WHERE A STORM OCCURS. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAS
THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A SHOWER OR STORM. GIVEN THE SLOW STORM
MOTIONS, THESE STORMS COULD LINGER OVER A GIVEN LOCATION.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...NAYLOR
HYDROLOGY...CECAVA
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