312
FXUS63 KARX 092341
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
641 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY MORNING CAUSING LOWER
VISIBILITY AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
HEAT RELATED ISSUES FOR THOSE THAT ARE OUTDOORS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
REST OF TODAY: LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS FLOW WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER
THAT IS BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR
MOVING IN, JUST ENOUGH H700 THETA-E MAY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING IS VERY WEAK, AFTERNOON
HIGHS APPROACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH FORECAST CAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW STORMS.
GIVEN WEAK SHEAR VALUES, ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM WILL
LIKELY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN ANY CORES, SO THE SEVERE STORM THREAT
FOR TODAY IS VERY, VERY LOW. THE LACK OF STORM MOTION COMBINED WITH
LONG CAPE PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS MAY BE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. THE STORM THREAT SHOULD START DECREASING THIS EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING ENDS ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK: FOG FRIDAY MORNING, DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHT WIND,
CLEAR SKIES, AND HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE
LATEST 09/12Z HREF SHOWS A WIDE SWATH OF AT LEAST 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH
POCKETS OF 60-70 PERCENT CHANCES FOR 1 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN ADDITION, RIVER VALLEY FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS WELL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO DENSE FOG FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
FOR THOSE OUT TRAVELING TOMORROW MORNING, BE PREPARED FOR CHANGING
VISIBILITY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND LASTING WELL INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THANKFULLY FOR MN, IA, AND WI, THE CENTER AXIS OF THE RIDGING
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WITH THE AXIS TO THE WEST, THE HOTTEST
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO STAY WEST OF THE FA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
EVEN WITH THAT BEING SAID, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JULY FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
HEAT RELATED ISSUES FOR THOSE THAT ARE OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS
OF TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SITTING OVER THE REGION SHOULD
SUPPRESS MOST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 IN
WISCONSIN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AS WE WILL
HAVE THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. IF TRENDS CONTINUE THEN
MAY NEED TO ADD LOWERED VISIBILITIES AT KLSE AND KRST.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MUSCHA
AVIATION...CECAVA
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