497
FXUS63 KARX 101044
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
544 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ARE POSSIBLE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORM ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
HEAT RELATED ISSUES FOR THOSE THAT ARE OUTDOORS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
TODAY: FOG THIS MORNING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE
CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY MORNING AS BOTH INSTANCES HAD THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE, BUT YESTERDAY MORNING HAD CLOUD COVER. THIS MORNING'S
FORECAST IS MORE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IS BETTER FOR FOG TO FORM. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN AROUND SUNRISE THAT COULD LIMIT ANY FOG
THAT DOES FORM, BUT THE LATEST HREF HAS A 30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR LESS
THAN 0.5 MILES OF VISIBILITY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. ANY FOG THAT
DOES FORM WOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, THERE IS LIGHT FLOW ALOFT AND GOOD INSTABILITY
PROFILES THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL. WHILE
THERE IS A WEAK WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW DRY WE ARE COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
THERE IS A GOOD SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 5KFT TO 7KFT THAT
COULD INHIBIT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM GETTING THEIR RAINFALL
TO THE SURFACE. THAT BEING SAID, RECENT CAM RUNS SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED 15 TO
25% POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY-NEXT WEEK: WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH MIDWEEK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS BEGINNING ON SATURDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THANKFULLY
FOR MN, IA, AND WI, THE CENTER AXIS OF THE RIDGING PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. WITH THE AXIS TO THE WEST, THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO STAY WEST OF THE FA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. EVEN WITH
THAT BEING SAID, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR MID JULY FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME HEAT RELATED
ISSUES FOR THOSE THAT ARE OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SITTING OVER THE REGION SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME. HEADING INTO THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN. THIS IN TURN WOULD
KEEP THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR WAVES TO PASS THROUGH. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND
EPS BEGIN TO BRING BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY, WHICH
REFLECTS THIS PATTERN SHIFT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SOMEWHAT TRICKY FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS TO THIS TAF PERIOD AT KLSE AS
THE COMBINATION OF VALLEY FOG ATTEMPTING TO FILTER DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND AN IFR DECK TO THE EAST MAY RESULT IN
REDUCTIONS THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY, HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE
HREF FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS STAY EAST OF KLSE WHICH IS CURRENTLY
REFLECTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THAT BEING SAID, CANNOT RULE OUT (20-
30%) THAT THESE CATEGORY REDUCTIONS MAKE IT TO KLSE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ENSUE FOR AFTER MID-MORNING
WITH VFR CUMULUS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT TODAY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%)
FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW FOR THIS TO INCLUDE A PROB30 AT THIS
TIME.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA/MUSCHA
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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