817
FXUS63 KARX 102349
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
649 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
HEAT RELATED ISSUES FOR THOSE THAT ARE OUTDOORS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT: LOW CHANCES (10-20%) FOR ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO YESTERDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS GOING TO START TO BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER ON TODAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. THE FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY WEAK
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ALOFT.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER LOW CHANCE (10-20%) FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE RIGHT NOW AS
SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, H700 THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MOVE IN AS
PEAK HEATING IS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
WILL BE WEAK AT BEST SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN LATER ON TODAY AND SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY VALUES UPWARDS OF 1500
J/KG MLCAPE SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM. STORMS WILL BE
PULSE LIKE AGAIN TODAY AS SHEAR IS PRETTY MUCH NON-EXISTENT SO
ORGANIZED CONVECTION LEADING TO SEVERE STORMS IS NOT FORECAST
FOR TODAY.
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A VERY LIGHT WIND
OUT OF THE EAST. THE CLEARING SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT AND RH VALUES SHOULD REACH 90 PERCENT OR HIGHER
AGAIN TONIGHT. THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THAT BEING SAID, HAVE ADDED IN
SOME PATCHY FOG, MAINLY FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS BLENDED
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THAT AREA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
VISIBILITY TO DROP DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS.
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK: DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE AND BECOME
MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS, AN H300 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND MOVE WEST TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK. WITH THE CWA BEING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW AND EAST OF THE
HIGH, NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THANKFULLY, THE MAIN AXIS OF SUMMER HEAT SHOULD STAY
WEST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED HOWEVER, WITH MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY FEATURING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
THESE HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY CAN LEAD TO HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES FOR THOSE THAT ARE OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF
TIME.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP STORM CHANCES SUPPRESSED. THE RIDGE
MAY START TO WEAKEN BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
DIG SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CANADA. IF THIS OCCURS, A RETURN TO
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SET UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WOULD
OPEN THE DOOR TO SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
REGION ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THERE ARE SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
THEN RETURN AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL SEE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 20000FT
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE THEY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MUSCHA
AVIATION...CECAVA
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