404
FXUS63 KARX 110537
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1237 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME HEAT RELATED ISSUES FOR THOSE THAT
ARE OUTDOORS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES POTENTIALLY RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE AND BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
THIS OCCURS, AN H300 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE AND MOVE WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. WITH THE CWA BEING TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOW AND EAST OF THE HIGH, NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THANKFULLY, THE MAIN AXIS OF SUMMER HEAT
SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOT
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED HOWEVER, WITH MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FEATURING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THESE
HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY CAN LEAD TO HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES FOR
THOSE THAT ARE OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP STORM CHANCES SUPPRESSED. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE RIDGE WEAKENING TOWARDS
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS IT WEAKENS, THE RIDGE AXIS IS
FAVORED TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT, RESULTING IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW A PATH
FOR SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING THE REGION. THE
MAJORITY OF GEFS AND EPS MEMBERS SHOW MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BY
NEXT WEEKEND. WHENEVER THIS RIDGE DOES WEAKEN, IT WOULD ALSO BRING
ABOUT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE ONE
EXCEPTION BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE MIXING OUT AND RETURNING TO VFR BY MID-MORNING. HAVE OPTED TO
INCLUDE SOME MVFR FOG MENTION AT KRST BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS AND RESPECTABLE PROBABILITIES (30-50%) IN BOTH THE NBH
AND HREF FOR CATEGORY VSBY REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR TODAY WITH ONLY SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA/MUSCHA
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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