514
FXUS63 KARX 111501
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1001 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES MAY RISE WARMER THAN FORECAST,
IN WHICH CASE HEAT HEADLINES MIGHT BECOME NECESSARY.
- NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: QUIET AND DRY
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ARCHING OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL LEAD TO QUIET AND CALM CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS
INCHING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY OWING TO CLEARER
SKIES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK RIBBON OF THETA-E ADVECTION COULD GENERATE
SOME SHOWERS OVER NW WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT THAT SAG SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE DIFFER GREATLY WITH WHETHER THESE SHOWERS EVEN
FORM AND THEIR SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: WARMER AND DRY
A BLOCKING LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL FOLD EASTWARD AND DRIVE OUR
WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
REFLECTION ANCHORING ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, THE STRONGEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE DAKOTAS DURING THIS PERIOD,
HOWEVER, THIS WARMER AIR WILL SPILL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS
AND RESULT IN A STEADY INCREASE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURES--INCREASING FROM +16 TO +24 C AT 850 MB BETWEEN
TODAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE RAW NBM GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S, THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE RAW/MOS GUIDANCE THAT
HIGHS COULD PUSH MORE INTO THE MID-90S, OR EVEN THE UPPER 90S IN
THE FEW SPOTS. IF THESE COME TO FRUITION, HEAT HEADLINES MIGHT
BECOME NECESSARY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HAVE STARTED TO TREND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WARMER GIVEN THESE TRENDS.
END OF NEXT WEEK: STILL WARM, NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE FLATTENS AND SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS IT WRAPS AROUND A CORRESPONDING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. IN DOING SO, IT BRINGS THE JET STREAM A CLOSER TO THE
AREA, BUT ODDS ARE IT STAYS UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO.
THE GUIDANCE BEGINS THE VARY SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE PATTERN BY THIS POINT ONWARD AND GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING
THAT COULD DRIVE ANY RAINFALL, THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS OF
EQUALLY LOWER CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, EVEN WHEN BREAKING DOWN THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THE SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION IS
VERY WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME COOLING
OF TEMPS LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT BY HOW MUCH IS FAR LESS CERTAIN
AND IF ONE WERE TO LEAN ON THE EPS, WE STAY HOT THROUGH THE
WHOLE WEEK WITH THE CUTOFF LOW LESS AMPLIFIED AND STRONGER WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND
EVENING WITH IFR TO LIFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z AND LASTING THROUGH 12-13Z SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY UNDER 5 KTS THROUGH TODAY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...SKOW
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