677
FXUS63 KARX 271906
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
206 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 115. THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES CAN CAUSE HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
- DEW POINTS FINALLY START TO WANE, ALLOWING DANGEROUS HEAT TO
DISSIPATE FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
- NEXT STORM CHANCES COME LATE IN THE WEEK. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LOW WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
TODAY - TONIGHT: HEAT FINALLY COMES TO AN END
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, HEAT INDICES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE IOWA AND SW
WISCONSIN HAVE SOARED INTO THE 100-115 DEGREE RANGE AS 78-82+ DEGREE
DEW POINTS POOL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SE MINNESOTA, DEW POINTS HAVE
STARTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S, HOLDING HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 90-
102 DEGREES - STILL WARM BUT SLIGHTLY LESS OPPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S AREA
WIDE, WHICH SHOULD FEEL COMPARATIVELY BETTER THAN WHAT WE'VE
BEEN EXPERIENCING THE LAST FEW DAYS.
TUESDAY - THE WEEKEND: SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID, RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK
AS WE MOVE FURTHER INTO THE WORK WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE CONUS WILL START TO
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY
COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
DON'T SEE MUCH OF A COOL DOWN WITH SURFACE HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE WEST AND INTENSIFY, ALLOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO ROTATE SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST GREAT LAKES. THIS SOURCE OF LIFT
COMBINED WITH NORTHWARD SURGING GULF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO RETURN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOUNDINGS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD SHOW LITTLE TO NO APPRECIABLE SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY,
LENDING CREDENCE TO THE LACK OF RISK AREAS ACROSS THE DRIFTLESS
REGION IN ANY OF THE MACHINE LEARNING/CSU SEVERE OUTLOOKS. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS
LOOK TO BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SW WISCONSIN. WPC HAS ALREADY INCLUDED OUR AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK WITH THEIR DAY 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY COME
TO AN END THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 2 EXCEPTIONS: SPORADIC BKN CEILINGS AROUND
2500 FEET MAY (20%) OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS AND THEN SOME
VALLEY/FOG STRATUS MAY OCCUR IN THE WISCONSIN VALLEY AROUND OVS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AND WILL TURN CLOCKWISE TO NORTHEAST BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ041>044-053>055-061.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ032>034.
MN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ096.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094-095.
IA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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