484
FXUS63 KARX 280532
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1232 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
80S, BUT DEWPOINTS STAYING LARGELY IN THE 60S.
- NEXT STORM CHANCES COME LATE WEEK. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW
WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
TODAY - THE WEEKEND: WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, RAIN CHANCES
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK
AFTER A COUPLE OF HOT AND HUMID DAYS, THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
SITTING OVER THE CONUS FOR AWHILE NOW, SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES OVER THE REGION. BOTH OF THESE WILL HELP
KEEP THOSE UPPER 70S AND MID 80S DEWPOINTS AWAY AND KEEP THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MODELS
THAT TRY TO BRING SOME SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY INTO WEST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH
INSTABILITY, 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE FROM THE 00Z HRRR, TO
BUILD IN. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUPPORT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE AREAS ON WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER NOT MUCH LOOKS TO EXPECTED FOR RAIN AMOUNTS.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY A MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS TROUGH BECOMES CLOSED
OFF AS IT SHIFTS MORE OVER OUR CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ALSO GOOD AS THIS JET WILL HAVE A
FETCH ALL THE WAY FROM THE GULF ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE IN THE
1.75 TO 2.0" RANGE. THIS LOW THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY
FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES, THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. THERE ARE A FEW GEFS
AND EPS MEMBERS THAT HAVE 3+ INCHES OF RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
CWA. WPC HAS WENT AHEAD AND PUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS A RESULT OF THE
PARAMETERS IN PLACE. ALL THIS BEING SAID, THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REMAIN IN THE MID
80S, HOWEVER THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, MAINLY IN THE 60S.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES COULD
BE ON THE COOLER SIDE IF IT RAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ONCE THIS
LOW IS OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND
BACK INTO THE MID 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS. SCT-
BKN MID-CLOUDS OF 10-15KFT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CEILINGS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BUT SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS OF
5-10KT WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TODAY, BUT
BECOME SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
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