811
FXUS63 KARX 282336
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
636 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL RAIN CHANCES (20-40 PERCENT) ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- BETTER RAIN CHANCE (60-90 PERCENT) FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. RAIN TOTALS GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH UP TO 15
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HRRR INDICATES SOME LIGHT CONCENTRATIONS OF SMOKE NEAR THE
SURFACE (PROBABLY TOO LOW TO BE NOTICED) AND MUCH GREATER SMOKE
CONCENTRATION AROUND 6K FEET. THE LATTER WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A
MILKY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE MID-60S TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 0-1 KM ML CAPES WILL BE UP
250 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. WITH THE 0-3
KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR BEING GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS,
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID- AND UPPER 60S.
THURSDAY
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 1.5 TO AROUND 2 INCHES. SOME OF MODELS ARE EVEN UP
TO 2.5 INCHES. WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 4
KM. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE
1 TO 2-INCH RANGE. THE LREF SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS UP TO 15
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN TOTALS OVER 2 INCHES.
WITH 0-1 KM MIXED-LAYER CAPES ONLY UP TO 500 J/KG AND WEAK TO
MODERATE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR (GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS),
ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID- AND UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY
AND AROUND 80 ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-
AND UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND AROUND 60 ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S ON SUNDAY AND IN THE LOWER AND MID-80S
ON MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-50S TO LOWER
60S ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AROUND 60 ON MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE 29.00Z TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY WHERE LIFR FG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FG AFFECTING
KLSE TAF SITE CAN'T BE RULED OUT, CURRENT MOISTURE
(TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION) APPEARS TOO DRY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...JAR
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