055
FXUS63 KARX 010551
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1251 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN LARGELY COMES TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH LOW POTENTIAL (10-30%) FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN
INTO THIS EVENING.
- DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (30-50%) RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT
A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS, THE DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 01.18Z AND
01.20Z. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 0.25 TO 1 INCH.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH 0-1 KM MIXED-LAYER CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG AND SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, WEST-CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH
WEAK 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-70S TO AROUND 80. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS RIDGE AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 80 TO THE MID-80S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WITH VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY (LESS THAN 100 J/KG), ONLY EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
WEAK SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXES MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION, THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY BECOME
FAVORABLE AT TIMES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-70S TO MID-80S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-50S TO MID-60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO CHURN AND SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, SPARKING SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKE PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 THOUGH SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS TO BE EXPECTED NORTH OF I-90 OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS ARE
PRESENT WITH CEILINGS SITTING AROUND 1-3KFT (LOCALLY LOWER) AND
VISIBILITIES AROUND 4SM ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING
15-25KT AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THOSE AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT A BIT SOONER
THIS MORNING MAY SEE SOME MIST/FOG DEVELOP (MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER) RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK. IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
COME TO AN END ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AROUND 18Z, LEADING TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-15KT. THAT SAID, LOW POTENTIAL (10-30%) FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page