893
FXUS63 KARX 011101
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
601 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN LARGELY COMES TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH LOW POTENTIAL (10-30%) FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN
INTO THIS EVENING.
- DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (30-50%) RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT
A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS, THE DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 01.18Z AND
01.20Z. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 0.25 TO 1 INCH.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH 0-1 KM MIXED-LAYER CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG AND SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, WEST-CENTRAL, AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH
WEAK 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-70S TO AROUND 80. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS RIDGE AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 80 TO THE MID-80S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WITH VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY (LESS THAN 100 J/KG), ONLY EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
WEAK SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXES MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION, THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY BECOME
FAVORABLE AT TIMES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-70S TO MID-80S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-50S TO MID-60S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, FOG HAS DEVELOPED GENERALLY
ALONG I-35, BUT SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED
FURTHER EAST, MOST NOTABLY AT KRST. GIVEN THAT CLOUDS LINGERED
OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE IN THE
WAY OF IMPACTS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED.
SHOWERS ONGOING MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM AUM TO DLL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS,
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AFTER 18Z. MVFR AND
LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS TREND SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE SHOWERS WITH
SCT-BKN CUMULUS AROUND 5KFT TAKING THEIR PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (10-30%) THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90 IN WISCONSIN.
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST, GUSTING 20-25KT SOUTH
OF I-90 THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND TO AROUND
15KT ELSEWHERE, BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH SKC-FEW SKIES THOUGH MAY NEED
TO MONITOR FOR FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT WHERE SKIES CLEAR GIVEN
THE RECENT RAINFALL.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
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