028
FXUS63 KARX 220447
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1147 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S.
- NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE (30 TO 55%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
TODAY - MONDAY: DRY AND SEASONABLE
AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION, NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS AS A
TROUGH SETS UP TO OUR EAST AND A RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL
BE AT ITS STRONGEST OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S. DEWPOINTS ALSO LOWER
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO THE 50S RESULTING IN A PLEASANT DAY FOR EACH
OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS. HEADING INTO MONDAY THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY: STORM POTENTIAL RETURNS
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THIS
TWO DAY STRETCH. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WHERE THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END UP AT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THESE DETAILS, AS WELL IF ANY OF
THESE STORMS HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL, WILL BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
THURSDAY - SATURDAY: DRY EARLY, MORE STORM POTENTIAL INTO THE WEEKEND
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
FOR THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY. BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SWITCHES TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GEFS (25 TO
40%) AND EPS (20 TO 30%) ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SHOW A WAVE
IMPACTING THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER IT IS STILL
TOO FAR OUT TO BE CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
MODERATE (60-80%) FOR VFR THROUGH THE 22.00Z TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY FG AFFECTING KOVS. WHILE LOW
CONFIDENCE (<15%) DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING IN A LOCALLY
DRIER AIRMASS, MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FG AFFECTING KLSE TAF
SITE WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND LIMITED IMPACT SHOULD LOW LEVEL
SATURATION MANAGE TO COME TO FRUITION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...JAR
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