542
FXUS63 KARX 221705
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1205 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED DRY AND PLEASANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S.
- THE NEXT POTENTIAL RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY (20-50% CHANCE) WITH RAIN NOT
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AGAIN UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
REST OF TODAY - MONDAY: DRY AND SEASONABLE
WE FIND OURSELVES SOLIDLY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A PAIRED MERIDIONAL RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS UPSTREAM RIDGE SLOWLY MIGRATES
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND CENTRAL MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY
MIDDAY MONDAY. THE NET RESULT FOR THE REGION WILL BE CONTINUED
DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH A CANADIAN FETCH DROPPING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S AND 50S. NOT BAD FOR LATE AUGUST!
THE ONLY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME WILL REVOLVE
AROUND ANY OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG, WHICH LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TRIBUTARIES TONIGHT BUT COULD
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS PAN OUT.
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY: STORM POTENTIAL RETURNS
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
OUR MAIN WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST WILL
COME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AS A COMPACT VORT
LOBE CRESTS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND SLIDES ACROSS MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. THERE MAY BE STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH THIS COMPLEX THAT COULD RESULT IN
ORGANIZED CELL STRUCTURES SHOULD THE LOWER LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
FIELDS LINE UP. EARLY LOOKS AT SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS NOTION WITH ELONGATED NW TO SE
HODOGRAPHS THAT WOULD SUPPORT ALL MODES OF SEVERE CONVECTION.
THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST AND,
GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF PLAUSIBLE OUTCOMES, PLENTY CAN CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK: DRY START, MORE ACTIVE FOR THE WEEKEND
WE RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NO REAL SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SEVERAL
WAVES PUSH THROUGH. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION EVENT IN SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WITH SOME OUTLIERS DEPICTING SWATHS OF
1-2+ INCHES OF RAIN FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THAT BEING SAID,
THESE ARE THE OUTLIER (<10%) SOLUTIONS AND THERE IS A WIDE
SPREAD IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCALES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH THE POTENTIAL (20-40% CHANCE) FOR IFR/LIFR FOG IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
10-15G20KTS THIS AFTERNOON, FALLING TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT
AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS FOR SUNDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...SKOW
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