341
FXUS63 KARX 230523
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1223 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
- NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE (25 TO 55%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
TODAY - MONDAY: DRY AND SEASONABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS A TROUGH SITS OFF TO OUR
EAST AND A RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THIS RIDGE DECAYS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
AS WE GO THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY AND MONDAY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
DEWPOINTS ALSO REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE, IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE
ONLY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS SOME FOG.
THROUGH THIS MORNING IT LOOKS TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TRIBUTARIES. HEADING INTO TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD HELP THE FOG POTENTIAL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD, DEPENDING ON HOW WHEN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE IN. OVERALL THOUGH, A REALLY NICE COUPLE OF DAYS ARE IN STORE
FOR US!
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY: STORM POTENTIAL
CIRCLING BACK TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS, A TROUGH JUST MOVED ONSHORE
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME
LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE AND ELONGATION WITH THEIR HODOGRAPHS. THIS IS
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MORNING WHICH
HIGHLIGHTED MORE ELONGATION WITH LITTLE CURVATURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH HAVE QUITE A BIT OF DCAPE (AROUND 1000 TO 1200 J/KG) AND MODEST
0-6KM SHEAR (35 TO 50 KTS). ALL THIS TO SAY THAT IF STORMS CAN
INITIATE THEN THESE PARAMETERS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION. THE
ONE CAVEAT TO THIS FORECAST IS THAT WE ARE STILL 3 DAYS OUT FROM
THIS EVENT, SO THERE ARE QUITE A BIT OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT STILL SO
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS STORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY - SUNDAY: DRY EARLY WITH INCREASED STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE
WEEKEND
WITH THE TROUGH EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
THE FLOW THEN SHIFTS TO A MORE QUASI ZONAL/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN WE ARE THIS FAR OUT FROM THESE WAVES IMPACTING THE
REGION, HOWEVER A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AND EPS DUE SHOW
SOME POTENTIAL (10%) OF 1 TO 2" OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SOME RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THAT SAID, SHALLOW LIGHT WIND LAYER AT THE
SURFACE, DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND THE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION ALL SUGGEST THIS FOG WILL BE
LIMITED AND STAY AWAY FROM LSE IN ANY CASE.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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