655
FXUS63 KARX 070545
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1245 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE LABOR DAY WEEKEND TO
BE DRY FOR LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER. PRIOR TO THIS STRETCH, THE
LONGEST STRETCH WAS 3 CONSECUTIVE HOLIDAY WEEKENDS (2007-09).
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKENDS STATISTICS DATE BACK TO 1971.
- HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
TONIGHT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION
AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UNDERNEATH THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION, NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT. IF THERE IS
ANY, IT WOULD BE FOUND IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER, LOWER KICKAPOO
RIVER, AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER TRIBUTARIES.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60 IN
WESTERN WISCONSIN, AND IN THE LOWER AND MID-60S IN NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
LABOR DAY
A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN'S THUMB
AREA WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY ON LABOR DAY. IF THERE IS
ANY RAIN (UP TO 20 PERCENT), IT WOULD BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 52 IN
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-70S TO LOWER 80S. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
A STRONG, SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL POOL
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS ITS MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO TO 2.5 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL
RANGE FROM 4 TO 4.5 KM. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME HEAVY RAIN. THE
48-HOUR NBM-CONUS HAS A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1 INCH OR
GREATER AND A 5 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OR MORE.
SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL RANGE FROM 250 TO 1250 J/KG ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40
KNOTS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-70S TO MID-80S ON
TUESDAY AND FROM THE MID-70S TO LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER TERMINUS OF 07.06Z
TAF PERIOD, MAIN IMPACT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT CONFIDENCE LEAVES MENTION OUT OF TAF
ISSUANCE AS OFF SURFACE WINDS ARE MIXING NEAR SURFACE AIRMASS AND
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PROVIDING INSULATION TO SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...JAR
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