437
FXUS63 KARX 091106
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
606 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
- INCREASING STORM CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, LOW
CONFIDENCE (<10%) FOR LOCAL STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT. RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING: LINGERING RAIN, FOG
RAIN CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS JUST TO
OUR WEST NEAR THE TWIN CITIES METRO. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
PUSHES TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST, SO WILL THE RAIN. MOST IMPACTS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WAY FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THANKS TO THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL/SURFACE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL. FOG, DENSE
IN SOME AREAS, WILL LINGER THROUGH MORNING, BURNING OFF A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR SOME
SO BE SURE TO LEAVE YOURSELF A FEW EXTRA MINUTES ON THE ROADS.
TODAY - THURSDAY: DRIER, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WINDS FROM THE WEST FINALLY START TO PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
WHICH WILL HELP TO USHER IN A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS, EVEN THOUGH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL WON'T BE FULLY THROUGH THE AREA. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH
THE BOUNDARY FULLY THROUGH THE AREA BY DAY BREAK THURSDAY AND SHOULD
KEEP OUR FORECAST DRY FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD. WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SET TO BUILD IN, EVEN THOUGH A "COLD" FRONT
MOVED THROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S.
FRIDAY - THIS WEEKEND: RAIN CHANCES RETURN, SLIGHT COOL DOWN
THINGS LOOK TO GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS CANADA/THE NORTHERN
CONUS. WHILE THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH,
LIKELY ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY, THE TROUGH/TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND
WELL SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AND SO WILL THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
SUBSEQUENT SURFACE SYSTEM. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR AMPLE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DECENT SHEAR FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT, BOTH AI NWP FORECASTS AND THE SPC
DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ARE HIGHLIGHTING MUCH OF MINNESOTA
(INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY, THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AS THE TIMING OF
THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN WHETHER CONVECTION
WOULD MAKE IT TO OUR AREA BEFORE INSTABILITY STARTS TO WANE. MODELS
KEEP GOING BACK AND FORTH ON THIS TIMING SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO PAY ATTENTION TO OVER THE COMING DAYS. OVERALL THE BETTER
POTENTIAL SEEMS TO FAVOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND AREAS
FURTHER WEST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND. YET ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS MONDAY WITH BOTH AND EC/GEFS SHOWING A STOUT
UPPER TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TOWARDS THE
PLAINS. LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/GEPS) PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY ARE ALREADY BETWEEN 65-85% 6 DAYS OUT. THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FROM A HEAVY RAIN PERSPECTIVE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
MAIN FORECAST IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AFFECTING SELECT AIRPORTS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA. KRST TAF SITE HAS REMAINED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
FOG BANK AND CLEARING SKIES, YET TO RECEIVE THE LOWEST IMPACTS
AS OF 09.12Z TAF ISSUANCE WHILE KTOB SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST HAS
FLUCTUATED 1/4 TO 1/2 FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE,
WHILE IMMEDIATE TAF DOESN'T INCLUDE IFR OR LOWER IMPACTS, CANNOT
BE RULED OUT BEFORE SUNRISE.
STRONG WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH FG
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING HIGHEST IN
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN POTENTIALLY INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...JAR
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