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FXUS63 KARX 221044
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
544 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STAYING COOLER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S.
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAINING IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
COOLER & MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK:
AN AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW VERTICALLY-STACKED OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES PROGRESSING EAST BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. INITIAL LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE RESULTANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AS THE LOW
EVENTUALLY EXITS EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE COOLER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE 60S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
MIDWEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY WEST:
EXIT BEHAVIOR OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT
REUNIFICATION OF HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO A TEMPORARILY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTH OF INCOMING POSITIVE MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN LONG TERM GLOBAL ENSEMBLES KEEPS
PROBABILITIES WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, RAPIDLY DECREASING AS
THE WAVE APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE AREA
OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. REGARDLESS, OVERALL IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL.
WEEKEND & EARLY NEXT WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
CONFIDENCE IN THE SYNOPTIC AREA OF HIGHER MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
AND ACCOMPANYING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVENTUALLY WEAKENING ENOUGH FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT CONFIDENCE KEEPS POSITIVE MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION
WELL TO THE NORTH IN CENTRAL CANADA UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW AS TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING VORTICITY AGAIN WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF CYCLE AND
THE WIND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...MUSCHA
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