760
FXUS63 KARX 111848
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
148 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN EXIST THIS WEEK. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
(50-70%) BEFORE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES COOL TOWARDS NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THIS AFTERNOON - MONDAY AFTERNOON: WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS
BUILD INTO THE REGION WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE
TO USHER WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT MIXING TO AROUND 850HPA WHERE TEMPERATURES
SIT BETWEEN 17-20C OWING TO THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION, RESULTING
IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH COULD HINDER DIURNAL HEATING AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT ON MONDAY DEPENDING HOW LONG THEY LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT OVERALL EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SKIES TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MONDAY AFTERNOON - FRIDAY: PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES, TRENDING COOLER
700HPA TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONES ON MONDAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER GIVEN A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF I-94
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. CURRENT PROBABILITIES ACROSS
OUR AREA SIT AROUND 20-40% PER THE 11.12Z HREF/REFS, HIGHER
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE STRONGER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT
AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. GIVEN SOME DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS, AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY LOW, GENERALLY 0.1-0.2" PER
THE 11.13Z NBM, BUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE REALIZED WHERE
THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO MAKE USE OF THE INSTABILITY. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS, ALLOWING FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FILTER INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME RAINFALL COMES TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER BOUT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS IOWA INTO ILLINOIS.
WHILE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA, MORE CONFINED TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCINGS AS DEPICTED BY
THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SUITES, THOSE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 18
COULD SEE SOME RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD (20-50%).
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS COMES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
EXISTS REGARDING RAINFALL POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS NOTED
BY THE 11.13Z NBM WHICH HAS A 50-70% PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS OF 1/2" OR MORE,
A 20-40% CHANCE.
DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY, BUT COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THURSDAY'S LOW. THAT SAID,
CURRENT PROBABILITIES OF THIS ARE QUITE LOW, GENERALLY AROUND
10-15%.
NEXT WEEKEND: COOL, MOSTLY DRY
FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SINK INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES NEXT WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES
EASTWARD AND LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, RESULTING
IN LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES RESULTING IN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EXACT TEMPERATURE
VALUES ARE UNCERTAIN AS QUITE A BIT OF TEMPERATURE SPREAD EXISTS
WITHIN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SUITES, UPWARDS OF 10-15 DEGREES.
HOWEVER, THE OVERALL TREND IS TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 11.13Z NBM IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S, AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MAY ALSO FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING, COLDEST
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KT CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WHILE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH, WINDS AROUND 1-2KFT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
STRONGER SIDE, LEADING TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT FOR RIVER VALLEYS SITES INCLUDING KLSE. HOWEVER,
THIS IS GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MIXING
PRESENT OVERNIGHT AND COULD ULTIMATELY BE REALIZED AS LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE INSTEAD. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY, CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT. THIS
THREAT ENDS MONDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RECORD WARM TEMPERATURE INFORMATION FOR MONDAY.
LA CROSSE, WI (RECORD/FORECAST):
DATE HIGH TEMPERATURE WARM LOW TEMPERATURE
----- --------------- ---------------
10/12 87F (1995) / 87F 65F (1896) / 68F
ROCHESTER, MN (RECORD/FORECAST):
DATE HIGH TEMPERATURE WARM LOW TEMPERATURE
----- --------------- ---------------
10/12 85F (1975) / 86F 61F (2008) / 67F
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
CLIMATE...FALKINHAM
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