769
FXUS63 KARX 121739
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1239 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO TODAY.
- RAIN POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. KEPT THE 30-60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. HOWEVER, THE LATEST CAMS ARE
INDICATING THAT THESE RAIN CHANCES MIGHT END UP BEING TO OUR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
- MUCH COLD TEMPERATURES (MID-20S TO MID-30S) EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR SOME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
TODAY
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20C. THESE
ARE 2.5 TO 3.2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL IN THE NAEFS
AND ECMWF ESAT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH
NEAR-RECORD AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
AS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVES INTO AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90, THE CAMS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE MAY
BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF THEY DID HAPPEN TO
OCCUR, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH.
TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE NBM CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 94. THE CAMS ARE TRENDING DRIER AND DRIER AS THE
BETTER FORCING AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MORE TO OUR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
WITH THE FRONT NOT REACHING THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR UNTIL
AROUND 1 AM, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAILY WARM RECORDS
TO BE EITHER TIED OR BROKEN FOR OCTOBER 12. LOW TEMPERATURES BY
SUNRISE ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-50S TO MID-60S.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SIMON. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THE
GFS IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS FRONT. AS A
RESULT, THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER ANY OF THIS
RAIN WILL BE ABLE TO GET AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME PHASING OF
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE UPPER
AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE, THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THE
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS GREATER THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH, COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND RANGE FROM
THE MID-20S TO MID-30S ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING AN END
TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR SOME AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-94 LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING (20-40%) AS THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. A SHORT PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR
VALLEY SITES ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 02Z-09Z. LLWS IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE 12.12Z REFS/HREF DEPICT
FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITIES (50-80%) FOR CEILINGS BELOW 3KFT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR THOSE OUTSIDE OF SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN, BEFORE LIFTING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
RECORD WARM TEMPERATURE INFORMATION FOR TODAY.
LA CROSSE, WI (RECORD/FORECAST):
DATE HIGH TEMPERATURE WARM LOW TEMPERATURE
----- --------------- ---------------
10/12 87F (1995) / 86F 65F (1896) / 68F
ROCHESTER, MN (RECORD/FORECAST):
DATE HIGH TEMPERATURE WARM LOW TEMPERATURE
----- --------------- ---------------
10/12 85F (1975) / 87F 61F (2008) / 66F
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
CLIMATE...BOYNE
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