195
FXUS63 KARX 121852
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
152 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE (15-45%) THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
- SMALL (20%) POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER IN FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN TOMORROW EVENING. BETTER CHANCE (50-80%) FOR RAIN
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES (MID-20S TO MID-30S) EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BRING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR
SOME, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-94 (20-50% CHANCE TO FALL BELOW
28).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SD
ROLLS EASTWARD TO NORTHERN WI. AS HEIGHTS ALOFT COOL AHEAD OF THE
WAVE, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR
CWA, NORTH OF I-94. THAT SAID, WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 700-800MB
LAYER LOOK TO BOTH LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ELEVATED. THUS, WHILE SHEAR
PROFILES THROUGH THE COLUMN WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ALL FORMS OF
SEVERE WEATHER, SHEAR THROUGH THE EFFECTIVE LAYER OF ANY UNCAPPED
PARCELS IS FAR LESS SUPPORTIVE. THUS, OTHER THAN LIGHTNING AND
PERHAPS A SMALL HAILSTONE, AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT HAZARDS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
STILL ON TRACK FOR AN UPPER LOW TO BARREL OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
WEDNESDAY AND PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
RESULTING SURFACE LOW QUICKLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE TOWARD DETROIT. GUIDANCE, WHICH PREVIOUSLY HAD LARGE
TIMING DIFFERENCES, HAS FOCUSED ON THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
PERIOD WITH REMAINING UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE EXACT TRAJECTORY
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW, FINAL TRAJECTORY WILL BE VERY
IMPORTANT, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTH
OF I-90 IN WI. FOR AREAS IN OUR SOUTHEAST, AM NOW CARRYING 80 POPS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI. PROGGED
850/925/SFC TEMPERATURES IN OPERATIONAL GFS/EC/CMC STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE EVENT AND 12.13Z NBM, WHILE HAVING
A NON-ZERO (SPECIFICALLY, 1%) CHANCE FOR SNOW IN PARTS OF TAYLOR
COUNTY, IS PRETTY MUCH ALL RAIN, SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH AN ALL RAIN
FORECAST.
KILLING FREEZE POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I-94
BROAD SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT'S UPPER
TROUGH. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER A PERIOD OF POST-
FRONTAL CAA WILL VERY LIKELY (70-100%) LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FROST,
POTENTIALLY (30%+) A FREEZE AND, FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-94, A CHANCE
(20-50%) FOR A KILLING FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW 28. WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS PERIOD AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPERATURES ENDING UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-94 LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING (20-40%) AS THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. A SHORT PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR
VALLEY SITES ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 02Z-09Z. LLWS IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE 12.12Z REFS/HREF DEPICT
FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITIES (50-80%) FOR CEILINGS BELOW 3KFT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR THOSE OUTSIDE OF SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN, BEFORE LIFTING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING REMAINED WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
RECORD WARM LOWS FOR OCTOBER 12TH AT ROCHESTER AND LA CROSSE.
THUS, UNLESS THEY FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT, NEW
RECORDS WILL BE SET. HERE IS WHERE THINGS STAND AFTER THIS
MORNING:
LA CROSSE, WI (RECORD/FORECAST HIGH OR OBSERVED MORNING LOW):
DATE HIGH TEMPERATURE WARM LOW TEMPERATURE
----- --------------- ---------------
10/12 87F (1995) / 87F 65F (1896) / 68F
ROCHESTER, MN (RECORD/OBSERVED SO FAR TODAY):
DATE HIGH TEMPERATURE WARM LOW TEMPERATURE
----- --------------- ---------------
10/12 85F (1975) / 86F 61F (2008) / 63F
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
CLIMATE...FERGUSON
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