490
FXUS63 KARX 130541
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1241 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
- HIGHER CHANCES (50-80%) FOR RAINFALL ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY
WITH NO IMPACTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES (MID-20S TO MID-30S) EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BRING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR
SOME, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-94 (20-50% CHANCE TO FALL BELOW
28).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING: COOLER WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NEVADA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN
PROVIDING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LATER ON THIS WEEK, PARTICULARLY ON
THURSDAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS, ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
TODAY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE EAST/SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY
COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THE REGION SHOULD BE UNDER SUBSIDENCE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
UNTIL A SECONDARY SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE
BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
BUT THERE STILL REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OR
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90. STRONG CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE SO ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD BE ELEVATED. MID LEVEL CAPE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS A FEW SMALL
HAILSTONES, BUT OTHERWISE MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE FORECAST WITH ANY
SHOWER OR STORMS THAT DEVELOPS TODAY.
THURSDAY: INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
DECREASING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME CUTOFF AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD BECOME
ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER TROUGH THAT DIGS SOUTH OUT OF ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY. AS SYNOPTIC LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SYSTEMS
MOVES OVER THE MIDWEST, PLENTIFUL MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, THE LATEST 13/01Z NBM DOES
HAVE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN (UP TO 30-50%)
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL QUICKLY PUT AN
END TO ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVES IN IN ITS WAKE.
FRIDAY NIGHT: COLD TEMPERATURES LEADING TO FROST/FREEZE
BROAD SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT'S UPPER
TROUGH. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER A PERIOD OF POST-
FRONTAL CAA WILL VERY LIKELY (70-100%) LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FROST,
POTENTIALLY (30%+) A FREEZE AND, FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-94, A CHANCE
(20-50%) FOR A KILLING FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW 28. WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS PERIOD AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPERATURES ENDING UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS AT KRST AND
KLSE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH
(60-80% IN THE RECENT HREF) FOR MVFR CIGS AT KRST AND KLSE WITH
ONGOING LOW-STRATUS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM CENTRAL MN.
THERE IS SOME LOW-END POTENTIAL (10-30% IN THE RECENT HREF) FOR
CIGS TO FALL TO IFR LEVELS, HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BEING THE TAF
PERIOD FROM THE WEST AND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WHILE REMAINING
AT AROUND 5-10 KTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON/MUSCHA
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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