282
FXUS63 KARX 131045
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
545 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
- HIGHER CHANCES (50-80%) FOR RAINFALL ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY
WITH NO IMPACTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES (MID-20S TO MID-30S) EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BRING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR
SOME, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-94 (20-50% CHANCE TO FALL BELOW
28).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING: COOLER WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NEVADA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN
PROVIDING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER LATER ON THIS WEEK, PARTICULARLY ON
THURSDAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS, ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
TODAY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE EAST/SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY
COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THE REGION SHOULD BE UNDER SUBSIDENCE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
UNTIL A SECONDARY SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE
BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
BUT THERE STILL REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OR
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90. STRONG CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE SO ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD BE ELEVATED. MID LEVEL CAPE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS A FEW SMALL
HAILSTONES, BUT OTHERWISE MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE FORECAST WITH ANY
SHOWER OR STORMS THAT DEVELOPS TODAY.
THURSDAY: INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
DECREASING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME CUTOFF AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD BECOME
ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER TROUGH THAT DIGS SOUTH OUT OF ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY. AS SYNOPTIC LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SYSTEMS
MOVES OVER THE MIDWEST, PLENTIFUL MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, THE LATEST 13/01Z NBM DOES
HAVE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR A HALF INCH OF RAIN (UP TO 30-50%)
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL QUICKLY PUT AN
END TO ANY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVES IN IN ITS WAKE.
FRIDAY NIGHT: COLD TEMPERATURES LEADING TO FROST/FREEZE
BROAD SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT'S UPPER
TROUGH. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER A PERIOD OF POST-
FRONTAL CAA WILL VERY LIKELY (70-100%) LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FROST,
POTENTIALLY (30%+) A FREEZE AND, FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-94, A CHANCE
(20-50%) FOR A KILLING FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW 28. WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS PERIOD AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPERATURES ENDING UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING AS
LOW-STRATUS LINGERS IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, AS WE HEAD LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON, WOULD
EXPECT SOME WEAK MIXING TO INCREASE CIGS TO VFR THRESHOLDS AND
ALSO WORK TO SCATTER CLOUD COVER SOME. IFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE
(20-40%) AS KRST HAS OBSERVED IFR REDUCTIONS THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND INCREASING MIXING
AFTER DAYBREAK, THESE IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY VFR BY AFTERNOON. AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, SOME
ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE (30-60% CHANCE), MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AND REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON/MUSCHA
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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