504
FXUS63 KARX 132348
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
648 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AND, FOR AREAS AROUND AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY
18, A THUNDERSTORM.
- VERY HIGH (80-95%) CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THURSDAY WITH NO
IMPACTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES (MID-20S TO MID-30S) EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BRING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR
SOME, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-94 (20-45% CHANCE TO FALL BELOW
28).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, AREA OF 850MB WAA CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL IA WILL SNEAK INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN WI AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
NORTHEAST IA. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 750-500MB LAYER PER THE
13.18Z DVN RAOB, A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP. THAT SAID, CONTINUED CAPPING CONCERNS EVEN WHEN LIFTING THE
MOST UNSTABLE PARCEL SUGGEST LIMITED (20%) POTENTIAL. FARTHER NORTH,
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY (20%) KICK OFF A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO IN THE
EVENING. EITHER WAY, AM NOT EXPECTING STRONG OR SEVERE HAIL/WINDS IN
OUR CWA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITED INSTABILITY.
VERY HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL TREK NORTHEASTWARD
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY WITH
THE COMBINED UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING OVER WI LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE TX PANHANDLE AND QUICKLY
MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
BRING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH IT SO, WHILE LOW LEVEL MOIST
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL BE LIMITED IN TIME WITHIN OUR CWA, WILL
VERY LIKELY (80-95%) GET RAIN THURSDAY REGARDLESS. 13.13Z NBM MEAN
AMOUNTS ARE AROUND A HALF INCH AND MAX 24 HOUR RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS
GUIDANCE ARE AROUND 3", TOO LOW FOR FLOODING CONCERNS. THUS, AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FROST AND FREEZE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
BROAD SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY'S UPPER TROUGH
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE MIDWEST. IN OUR FORECAST AREA
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TUMBLE INTO THE 30S WITH SOME 20S POSSIBLE IN
OUR NORTHEAST. THAT SAID, AM STILL CONCERNED THAT WE MAY STRUGGLE TO
FALL AS FAR AS WOULD OTHERWISE BE POSSIBLE GIVEN 13.12Z CYCLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW A LIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
THUS A LIGHT BREEZE BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE A
FROST APPEARS VERY LIKELY (70-100%) WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR A FREEZE
(40-90%), THE POTENTIAL (20-50%) TO DROP BELOW 28 NORTH OF I-94 AND
SURELY END THE GROWING SEASON HAS TRENDED TO COVER LESS AREA
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
ONGOING STORMS AT 14.00Z TAF ISSUANCE STAYING SOUTH OF TAF
SITES, AFFECTING LOCALLY SMALLER AIRPORTS IN GRANT COUNTY, WI
(KPVB, KOVS, KPDC).
SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH.
EXPECT IMPACTS/CEILINGS TO BETTER/LIFT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...JAR
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