602
FXUS63 KARX 160534
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CONTINUES THE ENTIRE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TODAY WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 0.5 TO 1.5". NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THIS RAINFALL.
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH A GOOD (40-70%) CHANCE FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THERE IS
POTENTIAL (40-60%) FOR GUSTS TO REACH 45 MPH, PRIMARILY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- TEMPERATURES BECOME MUCH COLDER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. A FREEZE IS VERY
LIKELY (70- 100%), PARTICULARLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94, WHERE
VALUES MAY DIP BELOW 28. A FREEZE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
RAIN CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING
AS EXPECTED, RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER NE/KS. RAIN
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND LESS THAN 0.5" OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. EXPECT THESE RAIN RATES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING SO SOME SPOTS COULD GET UP TO 1.5", INCLUDING MORNING RAIN,
BUT MOST WILL END UP WITH 0.5-1" AS THEIR FINAL TOTALS.
BREEZY WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY
FRIDAY, AFTER THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER LAKE WINNIPEG, SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST
WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN OUR AREA COOL
RAPIDLY. A STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT WITH PRESSURE
RISES NEAR 2 MB/HR AND A NORTHERLY 30-40 KNOT 850MB JET WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA. THE END RESULT WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
POTENTIAL (40-60% PER 15.13Z NBM) FOR A 45 MPH GUST, PARTICULARLY
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, JUST A BIT TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE FOR
ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR RAIN, RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MOIST CONDITIONS WITHIN MUCH OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SPOTTY OPEN CELLULAR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT, WITH SHALLOW UPDRAFTS
ENDING BELOW THE -10C LEVEL, AM NOT EXPECTING THUNDER. DOWNDRAFTS
LOOK TO AUGMENT THE RISK FOR GUSTS AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED 35-40 KNOT WINDS PRESENT AT 850MB.
FREEZE VERY LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO KS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO WI. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES TUMBLING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.
GUIDANCE PROBABILITIES POINT STRONGLY TO AN AREAWIDE FREEZE (AT
LEAST 40/70/70% PERCENT IN 15.12Z REFS/LREF/NBM). SINCE THE LOCALLY
DEFINED GROWING SEASON IS NEARLY OVER BUT STILL ONGOING, THE
EVENT IS WITHIN 48 HOURS, AND CONFIDENCE IS AT LEAST 50%, THE
CRITERIA FOR A FREEZE WATCH HAS CLEARLY BEEN REACHED SO HAVE
ISSUED ONE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-94, A
KILLING FREEZE WITH TEMPS BELOW 28 MAY (30-70%, HIGHEST IN
TAYLOR COUNTY) OCCUR AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS POST-
FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL STRATUS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS,
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORNING. SOME IFR CIGS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD, HOWEVER PROBABILITIES
GUIDANCE IN THE HREF AND NBH ARE NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER (30-50% CHANCE). MVFR CIGS PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, UNTIL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON
QUICKLY CLEARING OUT CIGS TOWARDS EVENING. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS AROUND 35 KTS, PRIMARILY DURING THE MID-MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY 06Z SATURDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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