455
FXUS63 KARX 161051
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
551 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL (40-60%) FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH
45 MPH, PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZE IS VERY LIKELY (70-100%),
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-94. A FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THE AREA.
- DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
TODAY: BREEZY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
A POSITIVELY TILTED H500 TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL IN ITS WAKE. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY MID-DAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC LIFT EXITS OFF TO THE EAST. WHAT WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE,
WILL BE THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SHOULD PEAK
AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH MID-DAY. THE STRONGER WIND WILL BE AIDED IN
PART BY A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A LLJ
AT H850 UPWARDS OF 40-45 KTS. THE NEWEST NBM DATA CONTINUES TO PAINT
THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR HIGHER (40-60%)
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THE WIND WILL
FINALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT MORESO THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY: FREEZE VERY LIKELY AREA WIDE.
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTHEAST OVER THE MIDWEST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR MOVES IN WHICH WILL AID IN CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS AND CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES COMBINED
WITH COOLER AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO REALLY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO EASILY
DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN POTENTIALLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO LOWER 20S.
THE ENTIRE AREA HAS AT LEAST A 70% CHANCE TO DROP DOWN TO FREEZING
AND AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE TO DROP DOWN TO 28 DEGREES, OR THE HARD
FREEZE THRESHOLD. THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A FREEZE
WARNING AS CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK: MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGING RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE BACK UP TO NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THAT MAY
CHANGE AS WE GET INTO THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST, BUT THIS
IS ABOUT A WEEK OUT SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS
VERY LOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MORNING AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID-MORNING. MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS AS WELL. EVENTUALLY
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE
MORNING ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, REACHING VFR BEFORE SUNSET.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH AFTERNOON AT AROUND
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...MUSCHA
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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