074
FXUS61 KBGM 141800
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
100 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST
OF THE REGION. OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES
OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT MOST WILL STAY DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
925 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE INCOMING PRECIP
RUNNING INTO A STRONG RIDGE WHILE THE SURFACE LOW DISSIPATES AND
REFORMS OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS MAY WORK THEIR
WAY INTO STEUBEN AND BRADFORD COUNTIES, BUT WILL HAVE TO FIGHT A
LOT OF DRY AIR FOR THE RAIN TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL UPDATES TO WINDS AND SKY COVER.
630 AM UPDATE...
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY IN STEUBEN COUNTY
INTO BRADFORD AS THE RAIN IN OHIO LOOKS HEALTHY AND THE 6Z
MODELS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS SO THERE
COULD BE LESS EVAPORATION THIS AFTERNOON.
300 AM UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN AS WELL AS WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS
THE HILL TOPS AND RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST. WEAKENING RIDGING OVER
US REMAINS STEADFAST AS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION IS HALTED BY A
RETROGRADING TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HELPS SHUNT
THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE INTO CENTRAL PA. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WERE LOWERED AND LIMITED TO MAINLY STEUBEN COUNTY INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF BRADFORD COUNTY PA. DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE
WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR MUCH RAIN TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE SO
AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN IN STEUBEN OR BRADFORD COUNTIES MAY JUST
GET A FEW SPRINKLES.
TONIGHT, THE TROUGH OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HALTS ITS
WESTWARD PROGRESSION AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO NY AND
PA. CLOUDS IN PLACE WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS VERTICAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES STAY PRETTY SATURATED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW WHEN SUBSIDENCE GREATLY INCREASES AND DRY
AIR REALLY ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ARE TRICKY AS IT WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE CLOUDS CLEAR AS THE DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. RIGHT
NOW NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECASTED LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE
DAY SHIFT.
FRIDAY IS LOOKING MOSTLY SUNNY AS NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
ADVECT IN DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. WITH
HOW DRY IT IS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY, DEW POINTS IN THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WERE LOWERED BELOW MODEL
GUIDANCE. MIN RH WILL LIKELY BE DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S AND 20S
WITH A STIFF NW WIND AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND GUSTS TO 20 MPH. RECENT
RAINS HAVE DAMPENED FINE FUELS SOMEWHAT AND THE INCOMING SOLAR
RADIATION IS WEAK BUT THERE WILL BE DRYING OUT OF THE FINE FUELS
UNDER THESE CONDITIONS SO POTENTIAL WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY FOR FIRE SPREAD.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
300 AM UPDATE
QUIET, SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. AN EXPANSIVE, HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL FEATURE MOSTLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM RACES EAST. SATURDAY WILL
SEE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 8-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH EXPECTED. IT WILL BE QUITE DRY ( MIN RH 30-45%)
AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP DOWN IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SUNDAY STARTS OFF MAINLY SUNNY, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID-30S TO LOWER 40S, PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN
OVER THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 6-12 MPH
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
310 AM UPDATE
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND
BECOME BREEZY AT 10-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL VERY MILD, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED. BY TUESDAY, THE AREA
WILL BE UNDER A WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN, AS UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE SOME. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING (50S FOR HIGHS).
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY) AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN, WITH MORE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF IT. THEREFORE, CUT
NBM POPS DOWN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY, AS IT LOOKS TO SQUEAK OUT ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY NOW.
KEPT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST VERY CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE/NBM FORECAST
FOR NEXT THURSDAY, WHICH BROUGHT IN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS...BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THIS INCOMING TROUGH SEEMS TO BE
SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER IN THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE...AND
THEREFORE WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND PERHAPS ADJUST THE
FORECAST TO SHOW MORE DRY WEATHER FOR NEXT THURSDAY IF THE LATEST
SLOWER TRENDS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD MOVE INTO ELM AFTER 05Z. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO ELM LATE THIS EVENING BUT LOTS
OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION. ITH WILL
BE ON THE EDGE OF MVFR CEILING POSSIBILITIES, AND COULD SEE
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. SOME LINGERING RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT OUR WESTERN TERMINALS; THEN BECOMING VFR
LATER IN THE DAY OR EVENING AREAWIDE.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC
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