286
FXUS61 KBGM 150625
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
125 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW SPINS TO OUR WEST.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING, BUT MOST WILL STAY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION ON FRIDAY, DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
700 PM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
DESPERATELY ATTEMPTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL NY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS, WITH WESTERN STEUBEN COUNTY NY LIKELY THE ONLY PLACE
TO RECEIVE ANY SORT OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE,
NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
115 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS COVER THE ENTIRE CWA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED, WITH SOME UPPER 30S
STICKING AROUND EAST OF I-81. TEMPS SHOULD RISE A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN IS PUSHING RAIN SHOWERS INTO FAR WESTERN NY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STOP
ITS EASTWARD TREK THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SLIDE TO THE SE
OVER OH AND WV. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY DISSIPATE THE SURFACE LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING, AND RE-FORM THE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST
DISSIPATES, IT WILL TRY AND PUSH RAIN SHOWERS INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. BUT THE PRECIPITATION WILL RUN INTO A LOBE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO CNY CONTAINING VERY DRY AIR. RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO STEUBEN AND BRADFORD COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AFTER THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO SEE SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH, AS WELL AS INCREASED
SATURATION FROM VIRGA THAT SHOULD BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH UP TO 0.05IN EXPECTED.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
FALLS APART AND WE LOOSE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WEST OF I-81 AND MID TO
UPPER 20S EAST OF I-81.
FRIDAY, CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WILL CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING NW WINDS FROM 5-10MPH
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. TEMPS IN THE
LARGER RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID 50S.
FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST,
BUT WILL BUTT UP AGAINST A LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL KEEP WINDS ACTIVE OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING MIXING TO COUNTERACT
WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE AN EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
300 PM UPDATE
MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY...SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY, HOWEVER
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF CANADA.
MAIN ISSUE ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND THIS WILL CAUSE BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS BETWEEN 8-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
50S AREAWIDE. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING, AND WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL PUSH LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
SHOULD STILL SEE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING,
HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
310 PM UPDATE
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES IN A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL RAIN. THIS WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ON
MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND BECOME BREEZY AT 10-20 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
VERY MILD, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED.
AFTER MONDAY, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, STUCK WITH THE NBM
SOLUTION, WHICH SPREADS POPS OUT THROUGH THE TUESDAY - THURSDAY
TIME FRAME DUE TO THE TIMING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW. THE TREND HAS BEEN PUSHING THIS FEATURE OFF FURTHER
AND FURTHER TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND NBM POPS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW THIS. AS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NOW HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS AND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAS HIGH END CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON AT ELM TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND NOT MUCH TO GET IT
TO MOVE OR MIX OUT. ITH WILL SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AS THE MOISTURE
PUSHES EAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT BGM. ALL OTHER TERMINALS
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FOR FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY, WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT 23 TO 28 PERCENT, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AN SPS FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST DELAWARE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES TOMORROW, AS WINDS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS MAY SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 20 MPH.
AS FOR SATURDAY, WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. A LARGE PORTION OF THE
LEATHERSTOCKING FIRE WEATHER ZONE SAW A WETTING RAINFALL SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY THIS PAST WEEK AND FUEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
NEARLY AS CRITICAL IN THESE LOCATIONS, BUT AN SPS FOR NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE NEEDED.
HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF NE PA SAW LESS RAINFALL AND FUELS REMAIN
VERY RECEPTIVE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP TO
NEAR 30% ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS REGION AND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA, WYOMING,
PIKE AND SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTY, AS FORECAST WEATHER CONDITIONS
SUPPORT RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ208-209.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC/KL
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...AJG
FIRE WEATHER...
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