467
FXUS61 KBGM 160010
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
710 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEST OF INTERSTATE 81 THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND, WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
115 PM UPDATE...
NW FLOW COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AT 850MB OVER LAKE ERIE
IS GENERATING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-81 THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES IS
TRAPPED UNDER A VERY DRY INVERSION AROUND 850MB. TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
THIS EVENING, WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/QUICK SHOWER
OVER STEUBEN COUNTY AS SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TRY AND PUSH
THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THESE SHOWERS HOLDING UP
BY THE TIME THEY MAKE IT TO OUR AREA IS LOW. LAKE CLOUDS WILL
EXPAND EAST TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES. ALONG AND WEST OF I-81, TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S WHILE EAST OF I-81 WHERE IT IS MOSTLY CLEAR
AND HAS LIGHTER WINDS, TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S.
WINDS WILL PICK UP SATURDAY MORNING AS THE INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUTTS UP AGAINST A LOW OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. NW WINDS 12-18MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30MPH ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT
THE SAME AS TODAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. NW FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND WEST OF I-81 WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
200 PM UPDATE...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S SHOULD BE COMMON. A COLD FRONT WILL SLICE INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CNY WITH A
FEW SPRINKLES EXTENDING INTO NEPA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES OF ANY
PRECIPITATION. MONDAY LOOKS TO START OFF A LITTLE GLOOMY BEHIND WITH
COOLER AIR POURING ACROSS THE LAKES, BUT SHOULD RECOVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ABOVE THE MID-NOVEMBER AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
200 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH MORE CLOUDS
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SUGGESTING THE EARLIEST BEGINNINGS OF A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE AS
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADES AND STRENGTHENS OVER GREENLAND
WHILE RIDGING IS HINTED AT OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UNSETTLED TRANSITION PERIOD WHERE PACIFIC
TROFS COME ON SHORE AND MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY ATTEMPTING TO PHASE
WITH A POLAR JET. THE DETAILS IN THE DAY TO DAY FORECAST ARE
VERY UNCERTAIN THOUGH AS ONE SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY AND SLOWLY COMES INTO THE NORTHEAST
RENDERING THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IT IS LIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY TIME
FRAME, BUT WHAT TYPE AND HOW MUCH...AND HOW LONG FOR EACH ROUND
IS A WILDCARD DEPENDING ON EXACT SURFACE LOW POSITION, DRY
SLOTTING, ETC. OVERALL, THE NBM GUIDANCE CAPTURED THE GENERAL
TREND OF THE WEEK, BUT WE FELT IT WAS TOO HEAVY AT THIS TIME IN
SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY NUMBERS SO HAVE NUDGED
THOSE OUT OF THE HIGH CATEGORICAL RANGES INTO LESS CERTAINTY.
WITH THAT UNSETTLED NATURE WILL COME COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT
WITH AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WE'RE NOT SEEING REAL COLD AIR JUST YET,
HOWEVER, DIURNAL VARIATIONS MAY INTRODUCE NIGHTTIME SNOW AT
TIMES. SHOULD THE SYSTEM PASS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE
WEEKEND, FRIDAY WOULD FEATURE RAW AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND
MULTI-BANDED/PLUMES OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION...PROBABLY
CONSISTING OF A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AS AGAIN, SIGNIFICANT
COLD DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TAPPED JUST YET.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN NO CEILINGS AND A MVFR CLOUD DECK IS
PRESENT VERY CLOSE TO A KITH TO KBGM TO KAVP LINE. KELM LOOKS TO
STAY SOLID MVFR CEILING THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THE PREVIOUS
THREE SITES MENTIONED MAY VARY SOMEWHAT. KRME AND KSYR SHOULD
REMAIN WITHOUT ANY CEILING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE CLOUD DECK
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 15Z SATURDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SOME
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO TILL ABOUT 22Z
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA, WYOMING,
PIKE AND SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY. SATURDAY
MORNING, WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL DOWN TO THE LOW 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
REGION OF PA HAS NOT SEEN MUCH RAIN AND FUELS REMAIN QUITE
RECEPTIVE TO FIRE DANGER.
A LARGE PORTION OF THE LEATHERSTOCKING FIRE WEATHER ZONE(NY)
SAW A WETTING RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THIS PAST WEEK AND
FUEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT NEARLY AS CRITICAL IN THESE LOCATIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ043-044-
047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ208-209.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JTC/MWG
FIRE WEATHER...
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