235
FXUS61 KBGM 162035
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
335 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE WILL
GRADUALLY EASE THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
THEN SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
330 PM UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT
ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT, LEADING TO A DRY AND SEASONABLY
CHILLY NIGHT. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 925 MB IS EXPECTED
TO ADVECT BACK IN OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION, SOUTHERN TIER
AND INTO PORTIONS OF NE PA. THIS CAN LEAD TO AT LEAST A BROKEN
LOWER STRATUS DECK THROUGH THIS AREA SIMILARLY TO WHAT WAS SEEN
THIS MORNING, SO CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED FROM THE NBM EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. EAST OF I-81 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR AND WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT, AND THE UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL
RH, THERE MAY BE A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL IN CONTROL. SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW, BUT WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE PA, ESPECIALLY PIKE
COUNTY, AND DRY FUELS, THE RISK FOR QUICKLY SPREADING BRUSH
FIRES REMAINS ELEVATED. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME TOMORROW NIGHT, A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH A CHANCE OF
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS CNY. WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE, THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE AS
THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD, SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO LOOK TO BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
210 PM UPDATE:
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
FINISH WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND WILL BE
REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. AS A RESULT, SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NY MONDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE A DRYING TREND
WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES. A NORTHWEST
FLOW MAY KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NY, BUT
ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN CONTROL FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE A RELATIVELY WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF FRONTS TO APPROACH THE AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY
THROUGH ALL OF TUESDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL (ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
THEN BY TUESDAY NIGHT, A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
(MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY). THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, SO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS
WILL NOT BE HIGH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
210 PM UPDATE:
THE WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DISSIPATE AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT CHANCES ARE MUCH GREATER THAT WEDNESDAY REMAINS
PRECIPITATION-FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
THE WEATHER THEN BECOMES QUITE UNSETTLED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN SYSTEM SLOWLY
PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN BEFORE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH WRAP-AROUND/LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AT SOME
POINT DURING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT THAT WILL MOVE IN, ALTHOUGH WHEN EXACTLY
THAT WILL OCCUR IS A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. POPS WERE
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE NBM FOR THIS REASON, ESPECIALLY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHEAST PA.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MID 40S TO NEAR 50) ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY WITH THE RAINFALL, BUT COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND INTO NE
PA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A LOWERING STRATUS DECK AS A RESULT SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS SEEN THIS MORNING FOR ITH, ELM, BGM AND AVP WITH
MVFR CIGS INCLUDED AT THE NY TERMINALS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST. TEMPO GROUPS FOR FUEL ALT/IFR CIGS WERE ADDED AS WELL
TO THE NY TERMINALS GIVEN WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY.
ANY LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY 12-14Z TOMORROW WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EASE
THIS EVENING. W TO NW WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE LIGHTER.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR
LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA, WYOMING, PIKE AND SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES.
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO EASE. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL DOWN TO THE LOW 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS REGION OF PA HAS NOT SEEN MUCH RAIN AND FUELS REMAIN QUITE
RECEPTIVE TO FIRE DANGER.
A LARGE PORTION OF THE LEATHERSTOCKING FIRE WEATHER ZONE(NY)
SAW A WETTING RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THIS PAST WEEK AND
FUEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT NEARLY AS CRITICAL IN THESE LOCATIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ043-044-
047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ208-209.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...DK
FIRE WEATHER...
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