542
FXUS61 KBGM 171809
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
109 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST TODAY WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER, THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
935 AM UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE AT THIS TIME, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
CURRENT OBS AND ALLOWED FOR SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG, MAINLY IN
THE CHEMUNG RIVER VALLEY, TO LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
645 AM UPDATE...
UPDATED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT TO MATCH TRENDS IN THE
6Z MODELS. LOWERED CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NEPA AS
THE DRY AIR REALLY WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR THERE TO BE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN EVEN IF THERE ARE RAIN SHOWERS.
330 AM UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED THIS MORNING AS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE
LOW STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH AND EAST OF OUR REGION.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ALOFT BRINGING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS WELL AS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONABLE AVERAGES AS
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL
LIMIT WARMING TO THIS MORNING. A FIRE WEATHER SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IS OUT FOR SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE COUNTIES AS AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY MOVING EAST SO
THAT WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FIRE SPREAD BUT THE PROBABILITY
OF IGNITION OF WILDFIRES WILL BE ELEVATED.
A QUICK MOVING 500 MB SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE FROM ABOUT 925 MB UP TO ALMOST 500 MB SO MOST
OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL EVAPORATE SO
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE LIMITED TO ONLY A CHANCE (<50%)
RATHER THAN LIKELY AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THE SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH TOO
QUICK TO GET MUCH SATURATION.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TI
GET SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING NORTH OF I-81 THOUGH OUR NEXT RIDGE WILL ALREADY BE
BUILDING IN. THE WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
BE LIMITED TO THE MORNING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
345 AM UPDATE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
FORECAST UPDATE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE AS SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
TO PARTLY CLEAR TO START. HOWEVER, SKY COVER DOES INCREASE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE WEST, SO THIS MAY HELP LIMIT COOLING
FOR PART OF THE REGION. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL DURING THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE FORECASTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND KICK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CNY AND POTENTIALLY
PORTIONS OF NEPA. CLOUDIER SKIES WEST OF I-81 WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S OVERNIGHT. EAST OF I-81,
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY ALLOWING FOR BETTER RADITIONAL COOLING.
THIS RESULTS IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
345 AM UPDATE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE, A STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD, MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED AS NUMEROUS SURFACE LOWS
WILL EVOLVE FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GIVES WAY TO A COASTAL LOW THAT DEVELOPS NEAR
DELMARVA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PTYPE FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. THE
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY, WHICH
INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN JUST SNOW FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR IF IT WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE OVER THE REGION. IF IT
DOES, THEN A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION
PICKS BACK UP ON FRIDAY. THE COASTAL LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE UP THE
COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. WARMER SOLUTIONS LIKE THE ECMWF FAVOR MORE
RAIN WHILE COOLER SOLUTIONS SIMILAR TO THE GFS FAVOR MORE SNOW.
SINCE NBM GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
EVENT, MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, THOUGH SNOW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT IN SOME AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 50S AND 60S. LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. THEN CONDITIONS TREND COOLER INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME
TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S BEFORE FALLING AROUND OR
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ALL TERMINALS AS ANY LOWER CIGS AT RME SHOULD SCATTER OUT
SHORTLY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS, MOSTLY TO THE NY TERMINALS STARTING
AROUND 07-08Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR/FUEL-ALT
LEVELS. WHILE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FOR MOST BY
12Z, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR SLOWLY TOMORROW, NEARING VFR
BY THE END OF THE TAF. HOWEVER, AVP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KTS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR AS ANY LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLEAR FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FIRE WEATHER
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ENHANCED RISK
OF WILDFIRE SPREAD OVER THE CATSKILLS TODAY. THIS IS IN
COLLABORATION WITH WFO ALBANY AND NY DEC. MINIMUM RH VALUES LOOK
TO FALL BETWEEN 30-45% IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
DELAWARE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY; OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 3-8 MPH, WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 12 MPH POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/DK
NEAR TERM...AJG/DK
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...DK
FIRE WEATHER...
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