161
FXUS61 KBGM 180548
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING, THEN A FEW SHOWERS WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN WITH DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1230 AM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING COOLER THAN
FORECASTED WITH MANY FALLING INTO THE 30S DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER. IN THESE COOLER AREAS, TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
TO BETTER MATCH THE LATEST OBS. ALSO, POPS WERE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT
IS APPROACHING THE REGION. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS DOING
WELL.
945 PM UPDATE...
DELAYED THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWERS BY A HOUR OR TWO TILL AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE EVENING UPDATES. HI-RES DATA CONTINUES TO LOOK
LACKLUSTER IN TERMS OF ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS CNY.
330 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS THICKEN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER NORTHWARD. LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
SYSTEM (GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.05 OF AN INCH) WITH PLENTY OF DRY
AIR IN PLACE THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 12Z MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) OF A SHOWER OR TWO LINGERING NORTH OF THE
NYS THRUWAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE FLOW COMING OFF LAKE
ONTARIO AND SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOW 40S. HIGHS TOMORROW RANGE
FROM THE LOW AND MID 50S TO THE NORTH WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER DURING THE DAY, WHILE THE TWIN TIERS SOUTH
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TOMORROW NIGHT LEADING TO
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. IT WILL BE A PRETTY
SEASONABLE NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
250 PM UPDATE:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR ONE MORE DAY ON
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT, A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE (MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY) WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, SO OVERALL
COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT BE HIGH.
A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DISSIPATE AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT CHANCES ARE MUCH GREATER THAT WEDNESDAY REMAINS
PRECIPITATION-FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
TO NEAR 60.
RAIN STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF A SLOW-MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR
40.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
250 PM UPDATE:
THE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN BEFORE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH WRAP-
AROUND/LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AT SOME POINT DURING
THE PROGRESSION OF THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
DRY SLOT THAT WILL MOVE IN, ALTHOUGH WHEN EXACTLY THAT WILL
OCCUR IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. ONE ADDITIONAL AREA
OF UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING HOW COLD IT GETS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. IF COLDER AIR IS ABLE TO FILTER IN, RAIN MAY CHANGE
TO SNOW FOR MORE OF THE AREA. IF TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL, THEN
ANY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY JUST OCCUR AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
A LOOK AT 12Z ENSEMBLE DATA WHICH HAS FILTERED IN EARLY THIS
EVENING SHOWS AN INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR MORE QPF IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDOW. THIS IS PRIMARILY TRUE
HEADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE CATSKILLS. AN INCREASE IN QPF MAY
ALLOW FOR DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES TO TAKE PLACE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OVER 1,500 FEET FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. A 40% OR SO
CHANCE OF AN ADVISORY EVENT IN DELAWARE COUNTY, PERHAPS
EXTENDING INTO OTSEGO AND NORTHERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MID 40S TO NEAR 50) ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY WITH THE RAINFALL, BUT COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TO START. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A BAND
OF SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS BETWEEN NOW AND 10Z.
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS AT RME. BEHIND THE FRONT, CEILINGS WILL
FALL TO MVFR AND FUEL ALT. BY 16Z, ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE BACK
TO VFR.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BY GUSTY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
WHILE MARGINAL, THERE MAY BE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) AT
ELM FROM AROUND 07Z UNTIL 12Z. AT 2000 FT AGL, WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 35 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN MAY BECOME A WINTRY MIX OR JUST
SNOW DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK/MWG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG/MWG
AVIATION...BTL
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