874
FXUS61 KBGM 180840
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
340 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL
NEW YORK TODAY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A WELL-DEVELOPED SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MIDWEEK AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR SOME.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
315 AM UPDATE...
A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED
INTO THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING, THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEPA AND THE CATSKILLS WILL OBSERVE ANY RAIN. ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. THIS
WILL TRIGGER A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING NORTH OF NY'S SOUTHERN TIER. LEANING ON CMCREG MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR POPS, SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ARE
TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. AS USUAL, LAKE CLOUDS WILL ALSO LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND TUG HILL PLATEAU THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WHERE IT RAINS TODAY, FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH OF AN INVERSION
BUT PROFILES ARE MOIST NEAR THE SURFACE. LOW STRATUS IS MORE
FAVORED, BUT FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST BASED ON LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. IF ANY FOG CAN DEVELOP, IT WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MAX OUT IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S TODAY. WHERE
LAKE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL PRESENT OVER CENTRAL NY, TEMPERATURES
WERE MANUALLY ADJUSTED LOWER BELOW GUIDANCE. IN THE IMPACTED AREAS,
THERE WILL BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL JUST REACH THE 50S.
OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THE PEAK
OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOLER THAN TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
330 AM UPDATE...
THE FIRST LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC SYSTEM OF THE FALL AND WINTER
SEASON LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE PALTRY AS THERE IS
STILL PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS. AS THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS OUR REGION, THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC WITH BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR REGION.
AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY, A 500 MB SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH A STRENGTHENING JET STREAK OVER THE SE
US. WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE
LOCATED ALONG THE STALLED FRONT, A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND
STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THIS SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT IS AS THERE
IS A BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION IN THE ENSEMBLES BETWEEN THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST OR THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.
WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING INTO ALASKA AS WELL AS ANOTHER
STRONG RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN GREENLAND AND EASTERN CANADA,
THERE WILL BE COLD AIR DISPLACED OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR, THE AIR MASS IN
CENTRAL CANADA IS NOT TOO COLD YET BUT WHAT IS DISPLACED WILL
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB
SHORTWAVE. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS UNDER
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT GENERATED BY THE INCOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, IT
IS STILL LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN AS THE COLD AIR
BEING DISPLACED OUT OF CANADA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE. NOW, GIVEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND ANTECEDENT COOL AND
DRY AIR, THERE WILL BE SOME DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING
OCCURRING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF THE LOW FALLS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 2000 FEET THOUGH
SOME OF THE COLDER MODELS DO GET NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO AROUND 1200 TO 1500 FEET. WITH PRECIPITATION RATES EXPECTED
TO BE HIGHER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AREAS THAT DO SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW UNDER THE DYNAMIC COOLING COULD SEE HEAVY
SNOW. GIVEN THAT TRENDS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AT
850 MB IN ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER OUR AREA, THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
HEAVY SNOW WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE CATSKILLS THURSDAY BUT
DID AT LEAST KEEP A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST GRIDS DOWN TO
ABOUT 1500 FEET.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
330 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG RANGE REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OCCLUDES AND BECOMES STACKED IN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. NW FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE LONG RANGE WITH
SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. MUCH OF THE COLD AIR THAT MIXES
INTO THE LOW WILL BECOME MODIFIED AS IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND WRAPS BACK AROUND INTO OUR REGION. WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WRAPPING AROUND, IT WILL HELP WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. 850 TEMPERATURES
NEVER REALLY GET TOO COLD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW, MOSTLY
BETWEEN -2C AND -5C BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES UP THROUGH 700
MB, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED CAPE FOR SOME ORGANIZED
LAKE EFFECT BANDS OR CONVECTIVE CELLS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM AND WITH THE LAKE BEING AROUND 50 TO 55 DEGREES F,
LOWER ELEVATIONS BELOW 1000 FEET MAY SEE MOSTLY RAIN. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE FINGER LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONONDAGA AND
MADISON COUNTIES MAY BE ABLE TO SEE SOME SNOW, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES CAN COOL A BIT MORE. THE STACKED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO MOVE OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO DIG BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
AN UPSTREAM RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TO START. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A BAND
OF SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS BETWEEN NOW AND 10Z.
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HOURS AT RME. BEHIND THE FRONT, CEILINGS WILL
FALL TO MVFR AND FUEL ALT. BY 16Z, ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE BACK
TO VFR.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BY GUSTY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
WHILE MARGINAL, THERE MAY BE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) AT
ELM FROM AROUND 07Z UNTIL 12Z. AT 2000 FT AGL, WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 35 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN MAY BECOME A WINTRY MIX OR JUST
SNOW DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...BTL
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