058
FXUS61 KBGM 190537
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1237 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL. A WELL-DEVELOPED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
MIDWEEK AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POTENTIALLY THE FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH THE EVENING UPDATES, FORECAST ON TRACK.
340 PM UPDATE:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD, WHICH WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. A WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL NY TONIGHT, BUT
THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY TO SEE ANY LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION, DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR ONE MORE DAY ON
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT, A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE (MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY) WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, SO OVERALL
COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT BE HIGH, AND MAINLY CONFINED
TO AREAS WEST OF I-81. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
340 PM UPDATE:
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LARGE CHUNK OF THE DAY
INITIALLY REMAINS DRY WITH A RIDGE MOVING TO THE EAST. HOWEVER,
AS THIS RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD, A 500 MB SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND A STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
A BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED ALONG THE STALLED FRONT, A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THIS SURFACE LOW, AND THEREFORE ALSO
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH COLDER AIR IS ABLE TO
WRAP-AROUND THE SYSTEM
AS OF NOW, EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT AN INITIAL ROUND OF RAIN WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY MIXING WITH SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A DRY SLOT MOVES IN FOR
AT LEAST NORTHEAST PA, BEFORE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO
THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION (HIGHS IN THE 50S), BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
340 PM UPDATE:
THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME COULD BE INTERESTING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY STALL OVER OUR REGION, OR POSSIBLY EVEN
RETROGRADE A BIT TO THE WEST. ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY BE PRESENT FOR
A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IF PRECIPITATION RATES ARE HEAVY ENOUGH, THIS
COULD ALSO IMPACT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION, BUT PLACEMENT OF THIS
BAND IS ALL OVER THE PLACE AMONGST THE GUIDANCE. THIS CREATES A
VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST AS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERPERFORM WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, WHILE OTHERS
MAY NOT GET NEARLY AS MUCH SNOW OR PERHAPS REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN.
MAIN MESSAGE HERE IS THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MANY AREAS TO
SEE THEIR FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF THIS SEASON, BUT THE
DIFFERENCE OF JUST A DEGREE OR TWO MAY BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
SEEING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW, OR LITTLE NO ACCUMULATION AT ALL,
WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR AN EARLY SEASON STORM.
THEN, FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIKELY DEPARTS TO THE EAST, A PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW, COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL NY. BY
SUNDAY, MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN TIERS MAY SEE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SOME SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
REMAINING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.
A BRIEF BREAK IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE A SHORTWAVE MAY
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SITS OVER THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN MAY BECOME A WINTRY MIX OR JUST
SNOW DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATURDAY...CONTINUED POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/MWG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...JTC
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