401
FXUS61 KBGM 191811
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
111 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL KICK OFF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TWIN TIERS. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
POTENTIALLY THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FOR SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
630 AM UPDATE...
WE HAD SOME VALLEY FOG POP UP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS, MOSTLY DUE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NOT MOVING IN
AS FAST AS ANTICIPATED WHICH ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN FORECAST. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
230 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AS THE STREAM OVER A RIDGE SITTING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIVE THE
WEATHER TODAY, BRINGING DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY EVENING,
ALLOWING FLOW TO CHANGE FROM MOSTLY NWERLY TO SSWERLY. A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA
WEST OF I-81. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE STREAMING IN WITH
THIS FRONT AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BATTLE DRY AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA FROM THE DEPARTING RIDGE SO SHOWERS SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER OVER THE AREA. THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ALSO LOOKS TO LOOSE SOME OF ITS LUSTER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING AND SYNOPTIC LIFT
FROM VORTICITY ADVECTION DISSIPATING. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WITH LOW 40S WEST OF I-81 AND
UPPER 30S EAST OF I-81.
WAA CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST.
TEMPS WEST OF I-81 SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH LOW TO
MID 50S EAST OF I-81. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN TWIN TIERS DURING THE DAY, BUT MOST SHOULD STAY DRY AS
MOISTURE IS LACKING AND LIFT WILL BE WEAK. RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG AND COMPLEX TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
410 AM UPDATE...
A STACKED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE A
BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY. BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY, DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT AND BRING A BRIEF DRY PERIOD FOR AREAS WEST OF I-81.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE EAST COAST
AND BECOMES THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW WILL ADVECT WARM, MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION
BEGINS TO BACK-BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW MOVES ON SHORE BY
LATE THURSDAY. DUE TO THIS, POPS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED OVER
NBM GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW STALLS AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL DIP JUST BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY, THE
LOWER LEVELS REMAIN WARM, SO RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PTYPE. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE REGION MAY SEE SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN LATE IN
THE DAY, BUT A TRANSITION TO JUST SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER. SOME OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS WELL THURSDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL NY. AS CONDITIONS
WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE MIX IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
TRANSITIONS BACK TO JUST RAIN. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL STAY COOL,
SO SOME WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW FRIDAY WHILE OTHERS MAY SEE A MIX.
WHILE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE THE
MAIN DRIVER FOR THE PRECIPITATION TYPES. THESE WARMER CONDITIONS
WILL KEEP SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIONS AT 6-10:1. THIS WET SNOW WILL
RESULT IN A HEAVY SNOW LOAD WHERE ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR. AT TIMES,
HIGH SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE OBSERVED. MODELS HAVE FGEN BANDING OVER
THE CATSKILLS AND SOME WEAKER BANDING OVER THE REGION WHEN
PRECIPITATION BACK-BUILDS. GIVEN THAT MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO HAVE
HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER THE CATSKILLS, THIS CERTAINLY MAKES
SENSE. THERE IS JUST UNCERTAINTY IF ADDITIONAL BANDING WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST GUESS AT SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR
THIS PERIOD DOES HAVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE CATSKILLS AND A
SMALL AREA IN NEPA. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH MOST
SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN ONLY CLIMB INTO
THE 40S THURSDAY BEFORE FALLING AROUND FREEZING OVERNIGHT. AS
MENTIONED, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS WILL RAIN FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
410 AM UPDATE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE AREA FOR ONE MORE
NIGHT BEFORE IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT, CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE REGION. PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LAKE-EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NY AND EVEN PA'S NORTHERN TIER THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL CUT OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE SHOWERS, THOUGH
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO START NEXT WEEK. THE COOLER AIR LIFTS NORTH
WITH THE DEPARTING LOW SO CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST
RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR WITH INCREASING CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. A
WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES TOWARD THE REGION WITH ELM POTENTIALLY GETTING
INTO THAT ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING. DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP MOST
OTHER TERMINALS FROM SEEING MUCH RAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
EITHER WAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ELM, ITH, BGM AND AVP AND
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN MAY BECOME A WINTRY MIX OR JUST
SNOW DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATURDAY...CONTINUED POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY.
SUNDAY...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. VFR PROBABLE FOR AVP WITH MVFR
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FAR NORTHERN AREAS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...JAB/JTC
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