523
FXUS61 KBGM 200548
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL KICK OFF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TWIN TIERS. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
POTENTIALLY THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FOR SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
535 PM UPDATE:
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE SKY
COVER FOR THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS ARE COVERING MOST OF THE AREA
NOW, ALTHOUGH VARYING IN THICKNESS (THICKER CLOUD COVER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST; THINNER TO THE NORTH AND EAST). ALSO MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID.
215 PM UPDATE...
FOR TONIGHT...AN OCCLUDING WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
WHILE RUNNING INTO A STRONG RIDGE AND WEAKENING WITH TIME.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT AT
REACHING THE WESTERN TWIN TIERS...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME
THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS EXTENDING
INTO THE TIERS AND FINGER LAKES REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE
WANING OVERNIGHT. WITH LAYERED WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS ON THE
INCREASE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.
WEDNESDAY AGAIN LOOKS TRANQUIL AND MILDER THAN AVERAGE BUT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND A
RESURGENCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING BACK INTO THE REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS MUCH MORE SUPPORT FROM THE
UPPER JET AND WILL TAP INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEING DRAWN IN ON
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. PWATS BECOME SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS
FOR NOVEMBER THUS WITH FORCING ON THE INCREASE WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS NEXT FEATURE WHICH WILL
BE VERY WELCOME GIVEN THE SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN MANY
AREAS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THE WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN
SUGGEST THIS FIRST IMPULSE WILL BE ALL RAIN, HOWEVER, SOME
MODELS SUGGEST THAT COLD AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW TO AT
LEAST INTRODUCE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED ELEVATION SNOW OVER
THE ALLEGANY PLATEAU (STEUBEN CO) BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
300 PM UPDATE...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWS COOLER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CONTINUE AS IT ROTATES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WILL DIP JUST BELOW ZERO ON
THURSDAY, MAINLY EXPECTED RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S BY AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ON THE EAST COAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
FEEDING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW STALLS OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING ALLOWING SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE AREA WILL SEE A FULL TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES SNOWFALL
WILL BE OF A HEAVY WET CONSISTENCY. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
WHERE EXACTLY THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK AND WHICH AREAS WILL SEE
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON WHERE POSSIBLE FGEN
BANDING SETS UP. REGARDLESS OF EXACT LOCATION, HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER OUR REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW A
MIX OF RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB, ONLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HOLD ONTO THIS MIX,
RAIN SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE REGION AS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SNEAK BACK INTO HIGHER ELEVATED AREAS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
300 PM UPDATE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKES ONE LAST SPIN OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARDS. DESPITE
THIS SLIGHT SHIFT IN PATTERN, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR HALF OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NY, POSSIBLY
EXPANDING INTO NORTHEAST PA. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION MONDAY CUTTING OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE SHOWERS. THIS BREAK
IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS
THE RIDGE INTO OUR REGION.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL LOWER
CEILINGS TO MVFR AT AVP, BGM, ELM, ITH. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON AT AVP, BGM AND ITH. ELM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MVFR
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY TERMINAL SEEING SHOWERS WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
SYR AND RME SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SYR
COULD SEE SOME TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.
A SWATH OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WSW TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD, DROPPING ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR/FUEL ALT BY
THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN MAY BECOME A WINTRY MIX OR JUST
SNOW DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATURDAY...CONTINUED POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY.
SUNDAY...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. VFR PROBABLE FOR AVP WITH MVFR
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FAR NORTHERN AREAS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...BJG/JAB
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...JTC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page