027
FXUS61 KBGM 200853
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
353 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDY AND WARM TODAY WITH SOME LINGERING MORNING RAIN SHOWERS.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND
POTENTIALLY THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FOR SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
230 AM UPDATE:
THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. TEMPS EAST
OF I-81 ARE IN THE LOW 40S AND SHOULDN'T FALL TO MUCH MORE WITH
THE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO REMAIN
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND IN THE FINGER LAKES. EAST OF I-81, SURFACE MOISTURE
SEEMS TO BE TOO LOW AND FALLING PRECIP HAS BEEN MOSTLY VIRGA.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.
TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND MOSTLY QUIET AS WE SIT UNDER A WEAK
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD. SW FLOW INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING,
BRINGING STRONG WAA INTO THE REGION AND PUSHING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S; WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID-NOVEMBER. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST QUITE WEATHER DAY FOR A
WHILE AS OUR PATTERN CHANGES AND WE SEE A RETURN TO ACTIVE
WEATHER TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
345 AM UPDATE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF THIS
FRONT IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED, BUT IT WILL
STILL BE QUICK TO MOVE THROUGH AS IT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH THIS FRONT SO
CONDITIONS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SOME
SNOW TO MIX IN. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT THAT WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR
SOME WEST OF I-81. HOWEVER, A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND WILL RETROGRADE AS IT COMES ONSHORE AND EVENTUALLY
STALL OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD BACK WESTWARD AS THEY BLANKET THE
REGION.
COOLER AIR AT 850 MB WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION,
BUT WRAPAROUND FLOW WILL FAVOR WAA IN THE LOWER LEVELS DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS MAINLY RAIN
FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIODS. BY THURSDAY
EVENING, CONDITIONS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX IN AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL FINALLY COOL OFF
ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR THERE TO BE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW. MEANWHILE, UNUSUALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW NORTH
OF THE REGION WILL ADVECT WARM AIR AND KEEP PRECIPITATION AS
RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THOUGH THESE AREAS HAVE
TRENDED SOUTH INTO NEPA AS THE SYSTEM ITSELF HAS ALSO TRENDED
SOUTH. WHILE IT IS UNKNOWN WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS WILL SET UP,
LOCALIZED AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HIGH SNOWFALL RATES
THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ELSEWHERE, AS
CONDITIONS WARM DURING THE DAY, A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR. THE STACKED LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT SWINGS OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BECOMES MORE SCATTERED. WITH
THE POSITION OF THE LOW TO THE EAST, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL COME
OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WITH SURFACE TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING, EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION,
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVER MOST OF
THE REGION.
OVERALL, THE TREND HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST COMPARED TO A
FEW MODEL RUNS AGO. THIS HAS ALSO SHIFTED THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL
TOTALS MORE SOUTH INTO NEPA. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, UP TO A FOOT
MAY BE POSSIBLE. IN THE VALLEYS, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH
LOWER, ONLY A FEW INCHES AT BEST. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND GETTING INPUT FROM WPC, A WINTER STORM WATCH
WAS ISSUED FOR WYOMING, LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA, AND SOUTHERN WAYNE. FOR
THE REST OF NEPA, AN ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. THERE IS A STRIPE OF HIGH
TOTALS RIGHT ALONG THE SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY AND WAYNE COUNTY BORDER.
IF THIS WERE TO SHIFT IN EITHER DIRECTION, THEN THE ADVISORY WILL
NEED TO BE UPDATED. TOTALS HAVE TRENDED LOWER IN THE CATSKILLS BUT
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL BE A WET, HEAVY SNOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS UPDATES, PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES. THE NAM IN THE PAST HAS HANDLED MIXED
PRECIP EVENTS WELL AND WHILE THIS IS NOT A TRUE MIXED PRECIP EVENT
WHERE EVERY WINTER PTYPE IS OBSERVED, IT WAS FAVORED FOR
TEMPERATURES DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT DYNAMIC COOLING DUE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
COULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED. THE COOLER NAM
WAS BLENDED IN WITH THE NBM TO LOWER TEMPS AT NIGHT. IT WAS ALSO
GIVEN A LITTLE WEIGHT FOR FRIDAY. BY USING THE NAM, THIS
FORECAST HAS MORE SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH
FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH MOST
HOVERING AROUND FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
300 AM UPDATE...
THE STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH
WILL KICK OFF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF CNY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, DISSIPATING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE RAIN, WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS SEEING LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY MORNING
AND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WE SEE A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN, WHICH WILL ALLOW A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA, KICKING OFF LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL LOWER
CEILINGS TO MVFR AT AVP, BGM, ELM, ITH. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON AT AVP, BGM AND ITH. ELM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MVFR
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY TERMINAL SEEING SHOWERS WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
SYR AND RME SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SYR
COULD SEE SOME TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.
A SWATH OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WSW TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD, DROPPING ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR/FUEL ALT BY
THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN MAY BECOME A WINTRY MIX OR JUST
SNOW DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATURDAY...CONTINUED POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY.
SUNDAY...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. VFR PROBABLE FOR AVP WITH MVFR
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FAR NORTHERN AREAS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ038>040-048.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ043-044-047-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ057-062.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...JTC
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