687
FXUS61 KBGM 201935
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
235 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDY AND WARM TODAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE FIRST
BIG SNOW STORM OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AROUND THE WYOMING VALLEY AND CATSKILLS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
930 AM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES NEEDED, UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS USING
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
645 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED BUT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINS AROUND
BINGHAMTON AND SCRANTON. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AT SHORTWAVE
WILL PROVIDE WAA THAT WILL PUSH TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL UPDATES MADE.
230 AM UPDATE...
THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. TEMPS EAST
OF I-81 ARE IN THE LOW 40S AND SHOULDN'T FALL TO MUCH MORE WITH
THE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD. INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO REMAIN
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND IN THE FINGER LAKES. EAST OF I-81, SURFACE MOISTURE
SEEMS TO BE TOO LOW AND FALLING PRECIP HAS BEEN MOSTLY VIRGA.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.
TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND MOSTLY QUIET AS WE SIT UNDER A WEAK
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD. SW FLOW INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING,
BRINGING STRONG WAA INTO THE REGION AND PUSHING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S; WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID-NOVEMBER. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST QUITE WEATHER DAY FOR A
WHILE AS OUR PATTERN CHANGES AND WE SEE A RETURN TO ACTIVE
WEATHER TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
345 AM UPDATE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TIMING OF THIS
FRONT IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED, BUT IT WILL
STILL BE QUICK TO MOVE THROUGH AS IT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH THIS FRONT SO
CONDITIONS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SOME
SNOW TO MIX IN. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT THAT WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FOR
SOME WEST OF I-81. HOWEVER, A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND WILL RETROGRADE AS IT COMES ONSHORE AND EVENTUALLY
STALL OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD BACK WESTWARD AS THEY BLANKET THE
REGION.
COOLER AIR AT 850 MB WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION,
BUT WRAPAROUND FLOW WILL FAVOR WAA IN THE LOWER LEVELS DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS MAINLY RAIN
FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIODS. BY THURSDAY
EVENING, CONDITIONS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX IN AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL FINALLY COOL OFF
ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR THERE TO BE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW. MEANWHILE, UNUSUALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW NORTH
OF THE REGION WILL ADVECT WARM AIR AND KEEP PRECIPITATION AS
RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW FGEN BANDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THOUGH THESE AREAS HAVE
TRENDED SOUTH INTO NEPA AS THE SYSTEM ITSELF HAS ALSO TRENDED
SOUTH. WHILE IT IS UNKNOWN WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS WILL SET UP,
LOCALIZED AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HIGH SNOWFALL RATES
THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ELSEWHERE, AS
CONDITIONS WARM DURING THE DAY, A TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR. THE STACKED LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT SWINGS OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BECOMES MORE SCATTERED. WITH
THE POSITION OF THE LOW TO THE EAST, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL COME
OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WITH SURFACE TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING, EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION,
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVER MOST OF
THE REGION.
OVERALL, THE TREND HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST COMPARED TO A
FEW MODEL RUNS AGO. THIS HAS ALSO SHIFTED THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL
TOTALS MORE SOUTH INTO NEPA. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, UP TO A FOOT
MAY BE POSSIBLE. IN THE VALLEYS, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH
LOWER, ONLY A FEW INCHES AT BEST. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND GETTING INPUT FROM WPC, A WINTER STORM WATCH
WAS ISSUED FOR WYOMING, LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA, AND SOUTHERN WAYNE. FOR
THE REST OF NEPA, AN ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. THERE IS A STRIPE OF HIGH
TOTALS RIGHT ALONG THE SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY AND WAYNE COUNTY BORDER.
IF THIS WERE TO SHIFT IN EITHER DIRECTION, THEN THE ADVISORY WILL
NEED TO BE UPDATED. TOTALS HAVE TRENDED LOWER IN THE CATSKILLS BUT
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL BE A WET, HEAVY SNOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS UPDATES, PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES. THE NAM IN THE PAST HAS HANDLED MIXED
PRECIP EVENTS WELL AND WHILE THIS IS NOT A TRUE MIXED PRECIP EVENT
WHERE EVERY WINTER PTYPE IS OBSERVED, IT WAS FAVORED FOR
TEMPERATURES DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT DYNAMIC COOLING DUE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
COULD LEAD TO MORE SNOW THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED. THE COOLER NAM
WAS BLENDED IN WITH THE NBM TO LOWER TEMPS AT NIGHT. IT WAS ALSO
GIVEN A LITTLE WEIGHT FOR FRIDAY. BY USING THE NAM, THIS
FORECAST HAS MORE SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH
FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH MOST
HOVERING AROUND FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
235 PM UPDATE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY,WITH A SEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IN THE
FORECAST. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT AND ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NY NORTH OF
BINGHAMTON...HOWEVER THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL WITH BREEZY NW WINDS (10-20 MPH). THE NW FLOW PATTERN WITH
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WELL,
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -6C. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL AND SOME WET SNOW FLAKES COULD CERTAINLY MIX IN AT
TIMES (ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING). THE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS DO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND END LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS OVER
THE WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S. SOME TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN LATER MONDAY BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS
THEN COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TOWARD -5 TO
-8C FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN. THIS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER
ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES ARE MILD ON MONDAY WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN
LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS. IT COOLS BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY,
THEN MID-30S TO LOWER 40S BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 30S, AND SOME 20S BY TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL FAIRLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS AT BGM ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
SURROUND THE AREA, AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
SITES ARE BRIEFLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SETTLING BACK INTO MVFR.
RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR AT BGM, ITH,
SYR, RME BETWEEN 5-9Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR IFR AT
AVP AND ELM AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CURRENT PREVAILING WIND
DIRECTIONS DO NOT USUALLY SUPPORT IFR, BUT IT IS DEFINITELY A
POSSIBILITY AND WILL BE MONITORED.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN MAY BECOME A WINTRY MIX OR JUST SNOW DURING
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATURDAY...CONTINUED POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY.
SUNDAY...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. VFR PROBABLE FOR AVP WITH MVFR
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FAR NORTHERN AREAS.
MONDAY... ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ022>025-044>046-055>057-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ057-062.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...ES/JTC
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...ES/JTC
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